Market review: the auto sector continues to decline. This week, CITIC automobile index fell 4.45%, passenger cars fell 4.40%, commercial vehicles fell 6.38%, auto parts fell 4.19%, auto sales and services fell – 0.58%, motorcycles and others fell 1.96%. In the concept sector, the new energy vehicle index fell 1.96% and the intelligent vehicle index fell 4.17%. Looking back on the adjustment since December 2021, it is divided into two stages. 1) from December 1, 2021 to February 24, 2022, the adjustment of the automobile sector is differentiated, with new energy vehicles and passenger vehicles leading the decline. The core logic is the change of passenger vehicle valuation system, and the performance of auto parts and smart vehicles is relatively strong; 2) After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 25, 2022 to now), the automobile sector has made another significant adjustment. This round of adjustment is a general decline, with the automobile sector falling by 8.0%. Among them, passenger cars, parts, new energy vehicles and intelligent vehicles fell by 7.6%, 8.8%, 9.0% and 12.5% respectively. The rise of upstream bulk materials, chip disturbance and demand side doubts caused by the conflict are the main reasons.
In mid February, the automobile association approved and sold 1.737 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 1.487 million, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, a significant increase from 6.7% in January; The month on month decrease was 32.0%, higher than that of seasonality. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of passenger cars was 3.674 million, with a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. First, the new energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly, and second, the industry continued to replenish the stock after the improvement of the supply side. In February, the sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars was 634000, with a year-on-year increase of 27.9%; In February, the market share of independent brands was 42.6%, basically unchanged year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars was 1.637 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%; The amount from January to February was 44.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.2pct. The momentum of the rise of independent brands is relatively clear.
In February, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 334000, 184.3% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 321000, 182.2% year-on-year, and the year-on-year trend was still strong; The month on month ratio was – 23.4%, which was also stronger than that of the same period in February 2021; From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 740000, with a year-on-year increase of 155.8%. From the perspective of penetration rate, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in February was 19.2%, an increase of 2.2pct compared with January; Among them, the penetration rate of passenger cars was 21.6%, an increase of 2.4pct compared with January. Among the new forces, Tesla China delivered 23200 vehicles and exported 33315 vehicles; Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal sales volume were 6131, 6225 and 8414 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 180.0% and 265.8% respectively.
Investment suggestions: from January to February, automobile demand performed well. With the gradual digestion of the impact of bulk price increases, the automobile sector ushered in low absorption opportunities after substantial adjustment. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) intelligent driving industry chain, pay attention to Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , SunYu optics, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) . 2) Auto parts, ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Platform company, focusing on Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) . 3) The trend of independent rise is clear, and the vehicle manufacturer suggests paying attention to Geely motor, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and the undervalued Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
