Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: the closing price of QinGang port rose sharply this week (3.4-3.11). The daily report of 11 closed at 1664 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 27.22%. Indonesia will consider suspending exports again in the near future, resulting in a large increase in prices, with a cumulative increase of 14.84% in the week. The coal price of origin is the same as that of last week. The port inventory continues to be destocked. As the weather warms up, thermal coal is about to enter the off-season.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: demand picked up this week, and coking coal prices rose sharply. The port’s main coking coal 11 daily closed at 3350 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 14.33%, the price of imported coking coal increased by 5.22%, and the import price difference expanded significantly. Injection coal prices rose slightly. On the demand side, coke prices were flat during the week, with coke oven operating rate of 74.6%, down 0.2% from last week. The price of Tangshan steel increased by 13.68% last week and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 16.52% this week. The storage of coking coal and injection coal in each link remained at a high level, but it was de converted in the week.
Equity view: the situation in Russia and Ukraine affects the market risk appetite. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.4%, and the fundamentals of the coal industry were consolidated, falling 3.12% this week, relatively outperforming the index. At present, the relationship between supply and demand is still tight, and the release rate of production capacity is slow. On March 9, the meeting of the national development and Reform Commission pointed out that we should strive to stabilize the national daily coal output at more than 12 million tons. According to this annual output, the maximum output in 2022 is about 4.38 billion tons, an increase of 309 million tons over last year, an increase of about 7.59%. The actual increment probability is lower than this level, which is equivalent to the total amount of nuclear increased coal mines last year, which is in line with expectations. The price of thermal coal will rise sharply and will enter the off-season in the future. Overseas prices and low inventory may strongly support the price; Metallurgical coal prices have benefited from steady growth and have increased significantly recently, paying attention to the marginal change of new construction data. Considering the continuous improvement of the fundamentals of the current coal sector and the attribute of superimposed undervalued value, it is recommended to pay attention to coking coal stocks with high flexibility and undervalued targets with strong certainty, such as Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, although the situation has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the industry interest margin is lower than the level before the Yongmei incident, but the low-grade interest margin quantile is differentiated from the medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it may be the best policy to choose the right opportunity. For exposure, the rapid de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure can be considered. Coal bonds have no worries but have foresight. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: policy risk; Strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Australian coal imports increased significantly; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
