This week’s view: in February, the medium and long-term loans of residents decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, which was negative for the first time since data statistics were available. On the one hand, due to the high sales pressure, the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises of Kerry Rui decreased by 43% year-on-year in the previous February, and the mortgage demand decreased significantly; On the other hand, considering the loose credit line at the beginning of the year and the possibility of banks issuing mortgage loans in advance, the medium and long-term loans of residents were higher (+ 742.4 billion yuan) in January and the loan amount fell in February; Third, in February, the property market and stock market continued to be weak, and it is not ruled out that residents will repay their housing loans in advance, such as the year-end bonus. Referring to historical experience, when the residents’ medium and long-term loans are at a historically low level, the mortgage interest rate will often improve significantly, and the subsequent mortgage interest rate is expected to accelerate the decline. This week, Chengdu released the first batch of centralized land supply plans in 2022, adjusted the bidding methods and relaxed the price limit. Zhengzhou issued a document to promote the monetization and resettlement of large shantytowns reconstruction projects. In the follow-up, it does not rule out the adjustment of local bidding and regulation policies in other cities, so as to promote the stable development of the real estate market. In terms of investment suggestions, whether from the overall situation of “stable growth” or avoiding systemic risks in the industry, there is still room for improvement on the policy side, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to repair. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector pays attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and other leading real estate enterprises with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, and moderately pays attention to the elastic second-line targets, such as Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . In terms of diversified business, the current valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, and the cost performance is prominent. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is also expected to bring high-quality property management valuation repair, focusing on such services as Country Garden Service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Central Bank: the medium and long-term loans of residents decreased by 45.9 billion yuan in February; 2) Chengdu: the first batch of centralized local auction was adjusted and the price limit was relaxed.
Market operation monitoring: 1) new house transactions decreased month on month, and the follow-up will still be under pressure. This week (March 5-march 11), 32000 new houses were sold, with a month on month decrease of 13.7%; 14000 second-hand houses were sold, up 5.4% month on month. In March, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 43.0% year-on-year, an increase of 13.6pct compared with February. Due to the cautious influence of supply and demand in the short term, subsequent transactions, especially new houses, may still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand decreased month on month. In January 2022, among the transactions of commercial houses in 32 cities, the number of units above 90 square meters decreased by 1.1pct to 76.4% month on month. 3) Inventories rebounded month on month and tended to decline in the short term. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 100.51 million square meters, up 1.5% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and property market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) Land transactions declined, the premium rate was flat, and the proportion of the second and third tier increased. Last week, there were 17.929 million square meters of land supply and 18.31 million square meters of land sold in Baicheng, with a month on month decrease of 39.6% and 13.1%; The transaction premium rate was 1%, down 0pct month on month; Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 0.7%, 36.4% and 62.9% respectively, with a month on month decrease of 4.5pct, an increase of 3PCT and an increase of 1.5pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: 6.84 billion yuan of domestic real estate bonds were issued this week, a decrease of 3.4 billion yuan month on month; The issuance of overseas bonds was US $96 million, a decrease of US $275 million month on month; The issuing interest rate range of key real estate enterprises is 3.27% – 13%, and the comparable issuing interest rate is flat or lower than the previous time. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 1.72 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 1.68 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector fell 5.48% this week, underperforming CSI 300 (- 4.22%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 7.86 times, and the valuation is in the quantile of 9.52% in recent five years. This week, the top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north are China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) ; The top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from South are China overseas development, rongchuang China and country garden.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
