Ping An View:
Industry perspective: antigen detection is included in covid-19 prevention and control measures, and the results of centralized collection of diclofenac, etc. of Guangdong alliance are released. On March 11, the covid-19 epidemic prevention and control group of the State Council issued the notice on printing and distributing the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), which officially incorporated antigen detection into covid-19 prevention and control measures. According to the plan, the Chinese antigen test is applicable to three groups of people: (1) those who have symptoms such as respiratory tract and fever in primary medical institutions and have symptoms within 5 days; (2) Observation and isolation personnel, including personnel in home isolation observation, close connection and secondary close connection, entry isolation observation, sealing and control area; (3) Community residents with self-test needs. We believe that antigen detection has improved the accessibility of detection to a certain extent. It is expected that grass-roots hospitals and observation and isolation personnel will become the main users of antigen detection products. For community residents with self-test needs, the plan clearly stipulates that they can purchase by themselves through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels, and their actual purchase intention is estimated to have a great correlation with the subsequent development of the epidemic. Antigen detection has the characteristics of fast speed, simple operation and slightly lower accuracy than nucleic acid. On the premise that nucleic acid detection is still the gold standard for diagnosis, a fast and simple screening procedure is pre arranged. Combined with the recent development of the epidemic in China, the epidemic occurred in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Shanghai and other places, with a wide spread and long duration. At this time, the release of covid-19 antigen detection can reduce the pressure of nucleic acid detection and comply with the development and changes of the epidemic situation.
Although there is still a certain degree of uncertainty about the penetration rate of covid-19 antigen products, the approval speed of follow-up registration certificates and the sales price, we believe that even if it is estimated conservatively, the liberalization of covid-19 antigen detection can bring great marginal changes to the performance of most relevant enterprises. \u1ae3\u1ae3\u1ae3\u1ae3ʰ\u1ae3DDDʰDDDDD\u1ae3DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD?DDD.
In March 10th, the Guangdong provincial drug exchange center issued the notice on the collection of the Guangdong alliance’s diclofenac and other medicines, the first batch of selected / selected results, with a high degree of concern. The product of Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300705) was successfully obtained with the price of 181875 yuan / sticker. In the Guangdong Union’s collection, Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300705) ‘s lsso was successfully obtained at the price of 181875 yuan / Sticker (the bid was won by P2), and the first three common drugs of LX were successfully selected (P1 bid). According to the rules, the company will get 100% of its agreed purchase volume in the first year and the first three parts, and will also get incremental use. Compared with the lowest price of 24.25 yuan / sticker in the alliance area, the price reduction is about 25%, and the price reduction range is relatively mild, which is in line with the previous market expectation of 20% – 30%. We believe that after the implementation of this centralized mining, the short-term suppression factors of the company will be relieved. At the same time, the bid winning of centralized procurement will also lift the prescription restriction of public medical institutions and improve the admission speed. It is expected that the sales volume in Guangdong alliance area will increase significantly.
Investment strategy: Main Line 1: create Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain, including innovative drugs (machinery) and CXO. CDE’s new deal accelerates the evolution of China’s innovation “new ecology”, and the industry is facing “re differentiation”. We should pay attention to companies with clinical Oriented Innovation Ability and license out ability. It is suggested to pay attention to: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Corning Jerry, Shenzhen Chipscreen Biosciences Co.Ltd(688321) . In terms of CXO, we prefer cdmo and macromolecular CXO track in combination with valuation, policy and capital factors. It is suggested to pay attention to: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) . Main line 2: products go to sea. The overseas market is a huge incremental market, there is a high threshold for the export of preparations, and the export of medical devices to the sea has also become a new growth driving force of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc. Main line 3: consumer healthcare. With the growth of per capita disposable income, the demand for consumer medical care continues to increase. At the same time, consumer medical products are self funded products, with independent pricing power and immunization fee control policy. It is suggested to pay attention to: Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , etc. Main line 4: the traditional Chinese medicine sector has been in the adjustment stage for a long time, and the overall valuation is low. Enterprises with steady performance growth in the sector have high cost performance and prominent layout advantages. Moreover, the export of traditional Chinese medicine products is small and the internal circulation attribute is obvious, so it will not be disturbed by foreign policies towards China. Some traditional Chinese medicine products are more inclined to health care products with stronger consumption attributes, which can be benchmarked with some food enterprises. On this premise, we believe that the subject matter with sufficient adjustment and low valuation deserves special attention. Among them, enterprises with a larger proportion of OTC drugs in the fee control policy of immune medical insurance, better room for price increase of products and a smaller proportion of traditional Chinese medicine injections have greater flexibility. It is suggested to pay attention to: Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) , etc. In addition to the above three main lines, there are also some other tracks with high prosperity and high barriers: including characteristic API and nuclear medicine. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Jiangxi Fushine Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300497) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) , Yuanda medicine.
Industry highlights: 1) FDA accepts the supplementary new drug application (SNDA) submitted by Servier IDH1 inhibitor tibsovo; 2) The phase II clinical trial of kangfang biological PD-1 / CTLA-4 double anti-ak104 in the treatment of PD-1 treated patients was approved; 3) Sihuan medicine HER2 double antibody xzp-km257 was approved to carry out clinical trials; 4) Approved by the State Drug Administration ® It is used to treat microsatellite highly unstable or mismatch repair gene deficient solid tumors.
Market review: the A-share pharmaceutical sector fell 2.07% last week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22% in the same period. The pharmaceutical industry ranked fifth among 28 industries. The H-share pharmaceutical sector fell 10.11% last week, while the Hang Seng Composite Index fell 6.65% in the same period. The pharmaceutical industry ranked ninth among the 11 industries.
Risk tips: 1) policy risk: policies such as medical insurance fee control and drug price reduction have a great negative impact on the industry; 2) R & D risk: pharmaceutical R & D investment is large and difficult, and there is the possibility of R & D failure or slow progress; 3) Corporate risk: the company’s operation does not meet expectations.
