The short-term sharp rise in nickel prices deviated from the fundamentals, and individual superalloy stocks fell sharply. Since last week, the price of metal nickel has risen rapidly. As the main raw material of superalloy, it affects the whole superalloy industry chain, especially the upstream superalloy smelting enterprises. Core producers Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , fell 7.5%, 9.5% and 13.8% respectively in a single week. As the cornerstone of advanced aeroengines, superalloys have a certain gap between supply and demand in China for a long time, and there is an urgent need to improve the degree of localization. We believe that supply guarantee is the primary goal. The sharp fluctuation at the cost side should not affect military production, and the upstream price fluctuation can be transmitted and absorbed more effectively. In the long run, the strong demand of aviation development and the production expansion capacity of various enterprises will be the decisive factors for performance growth. We should pay attention to the oversold opportunities of individual stocks under short-term market fluctuations.
The J-10 CE was exported to Pakistan for the first time, realizing the systematic and organic export of a new generation of aviation main combat equipment. On March 11 local time, the Pakistani air force held a reception ceremony for the first batch of 6 J-10 CE in Kamla. This indicates that China’s new generation of aviation main combat equipment has been officially installed in the Pakistani air force, realizing the systematic and organic export of China’s new generation of aviation main combat equipment, which is another important milestone in the export of China’s aviation high-tech equipment.
The aviation industry has opened up two major markets of civil aircraft and military trade, and the export transaction has reached a new high. In recent years, the aviation industry has firmly explored the two major markets of civil aircraft and military trade, accelerated the construction of a new development pattern of the aviation industry in the new era, and a large number of aviation military trade products have systematically appeared in large international air fairs. L15, zhi10me, “pterosaur” series UAVs and other products have attracted much attention at home and abroad. In 2021, the aviation industry and military trade overcame the impact of the epidemic, achieved good results and achieved a new high in export transactions.
The boom expansion of the industrial chain is conducted in an orderly manner, and the value of sector stabilization and allocation is highlighted. Under the influence of market sentiment and other factors, the military industry sector experienced a sharp correction at the beginning of the year, and the logic of long-term boom expansion remained unchanged. The verification of advances received by downstream enterprises and the landing of large orders will be conducted in an orderly manner to the upstream and midstream along the industrial chain. During the “14th five year plan” period, the demand of supporting enterprises is large-scale and uncertain, and the performance of private leaders will be more flexible. The CSI military industry index is valued at 59 times, which is at the 17% quantile value of historical PE. It is optimistic about the value of sector allocation under the current position.
Grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, and military electronics has high independent and controllable growth. 1) The contract liabilities of the main engine factory + the verification of the advance payment, and the growth of the aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The main engine manufacturer pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; The body system pays attention to Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , etc. 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from actual combat military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) , etc.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects the macroeconomic environment; Equipment R & D progress and procurement progress are less than expected; Military procurement prices fell; Industry competition intensifies.
