Industry tracking (2022.3.5-2022.3.11)
Will the shed reform make a comeback?
On March 8, Zhengzhou municipal government issued the implementation opinions on actively promoting the monetized resettlement of the reconstruction project of greenhouse residential areas, which mentioned that the monetized resettlement should be vigorously promoted in three years in combination with the three-year key action of resettlement housing construction, so as to ensure that the resettlement of people will be completed in 2024.
In 2015, the state proposed to actively promote the monetized resettlement of shed reform and start the wave of destocking in third and fourth tier cities; In 2017, the Standing Committee of the State Council proposed the implementation of a three-year plan for the transformation of shanty towns, with another 15 million sets of shanty towns transformed; From 2016 to 2019, a total of 21.57 million units of shed reform were started nationwide, exceeding the target of 20 million units in the 13th five year plan. In 2018, the executive meeting of the State Council stressed that we should adhere to the positioning of not speculation in housing and housing, adjust and improve the monetized resettlement policy of shed reform according to local conditions, and pointed out that cities and counties with insufficient inventory of commercial housing and high pressure on house prices should cancel the preferential policy of monetized resettlement as soon as possible, and the popularity of monetized resettlement will gradually decline; In 2020, the shed reconstruction project will enter the closing stage of the 13th five year plan. In 2021, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development stipulates that urban renewal is prohibited from large-scale demolition and construction, strictly implement the policy of shantytowns transformation, and urban renewal in the name of shantytowns transformation is not allowed.
From the perspective of the scale of shed reform, after the scale of shed reform actually completed reached the historical peak of 6.26 million units in 2018, it fell sharply to 3.19 million units in 2019, and further fell to 2.09 million units and 1.65 million units in 2020 and 2021. The annual shed reform plan proposed in the 2022 government work report is only 1.2 million units. According to the work report of local government, the annual goal of shed reform in Henan ranks first, reaching 200000 sets. We believe that although the previous round of shed reform successfully completed the phased task of destocking in third and fourth tier cities, it also exacerbated the cycle fluctuation, resulting in the early release of demand and the rapid rise of house prices, and the space for further stimulation is relatively limited. In the future, urban renewal will focus on the transformation of old residential areas and the construction of new infrastructure, and the monetization resettlement of local shed reform or the projects that have not started physical resettlement will play a limited role in supporting the regional real estate market.
Under the high base, transactions in new houses, second-hand houses and land markets are weak this week
The new housing market traded 3.84 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 38.06%, a decrease of 10.94 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory is 163.47 million square meters, the second-line, third-line and below are accelerated, and the first-line is slowed down. The second-hand housing market traded 1.4 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year increase of – 26.01%, an improvement of 9.59pct compared with the previous month. The land market traded 19 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 40.09%; The total turnover was 14 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 47.71%; The national average premium rate was + 1.01%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -10.48pct.
This week, the Shenwan real estate index was – 5.48%, down 6.71 PCT from last week, ranking 24 / 31 higher, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.25 PCT. In terms of H shares, this week’s wind Hong Kong real estate index was – 5.22%, down 2.92pct from last week, ranking 4 / 11 higher, leading the Hang Seng Index by 0.95pct; The kroney leading index of real estate stocks was – 9.04%, down 6.65pct from last week.
Grasp the structure of mergers and acquisitions and loose policy alpha
Investment suggestion: the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
