Us CPI hit a new high and is optimistic about gold under stagflation. Overnight gold prices during the week peaked at $2070 / oz, close to the record high of $2075 / oz on August 7, 2020. At present, the tension in Russia and Ukraine drives the risk aversion and drives the gold price. At the same time, with the rising oil price, the CPI of the United States soared by 7.9% year-on-year in February, and the inflation rate hit the highest level in 40 years. The market is worried about the global economic stagflation. Generally speaking, the gold price forms a clear trend or breaks through the high point of the stage, and the response of the equity market is more obvious. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the gold sector.
In February, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery continued to grow, and the downstream demand maintained a high atmosphere. In terms of output: China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output totaled 31.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 236.2%. The output of ternary battery is 11.6gwh; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery is 20.1gwh, and the loading capacity: China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading capacity is 13.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 145.1%. In mid February 2022, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0 times and 1.8 times respectively.
LME nickel has been closed, and the downstream is greatly affected. During the week, the nickel price of LME rose sharply from $29130 / ton at the beginning of the week to $10W / ton. Although LME halted the transaction, the extreme market hit the global nickel market hard, China stopped purchasing downstream, and the normal production of enterprises was affected by import losses.
Copper: stagflation risk + interest rate increase, copper price under pressure. Macro aspect: the US CPI increased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the risk of stagflation increased. During the two sessions of the week, the government reported that the goal of GDP growth of 5.5% in 2022 was put forward, and China’s economy continued to improve. Copper warehouse reached a new high, and so did nickel. China’s smelters export a lot, and LME structure is changed from B to C. Downstream demand such as state grid power investment has not improved, and copper price is under pressure.
Aluminum: the sharp rise curbed demand, and the aluminum price corrected somewhat. According to SMM statistics, during the week, China’s electrolytic aluminum inventory was 22000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 16500 tons. Demand: affected by the sharp rise in aluminum prices last week, terminal consumption was restrained. Supply: China’s electrolytic aluminum output has increased steadily, and the monthly output is expected to reach 3.3 million tons. Both supply and demand are negative, and the aluminum price has been corrected.
Focus on: Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) .
Risk tip: the macro environment changes, the demand is lower than expected, and the policy uncertainty increases.
