Research focus of this week: Comments on Aowei data of large household appliances in February
On the whole, under the high cost of raw materials in 21 years, the average price of each sub category of household power rose significantly year-on-year; Partly due to the wrong date of the Spring Festival, the sales growth of many sub categories performed well in February. In order to eliminate the influence of the wrong date of the Spring Festival, we use the sales data of power grid from January to February of 22 years for analysis.
White power: from January to February, the growth rate of air conditioning double line sales picked up month on month, and Haier's leading position in ice washing was stable
1) on the sales side, from January to February of the 22nd year, the growth rate of online sales of air conditioners rose from - 13.3% of 21q4 to + 14.94%, and the offline decline narrowed from - 21.9% to - 12.6%. Although there are sporadic epidemics in many places in China, the Omni channel sales of air conditioners are improving; The demand for refrigerators has declined, and the growth rate of online sales has decreased from 3.9% in 21q4 to - 0.9%, and the offline decline has further expanded; The online growth rate of washing machines has improved, with a slight increase in the same ratio, and the offline demand has further contracted.
2) on the price side, the price trend of bulk commodities is high, and the implementation of new energy efficiency standards has an impact on the production side of the whole machine. The overall average price of white electricity increased year-on-year from January to February of 22. Among them, the average price of air / Ice / washing online was + 11.6% / - 0.6% / + 2.5% year-on-year respectively, and the average price of offline was + 7.7% / + 14.8% / + 9.7% year-on-year respectively. Considering that the goods preparation cycle of white power enterprises is 3 months, it is estimated that the cost pressure of producing air and ice washing will gradually decline from 21q3. In the future, enterprises are expected to continuously increase profits in price increase + cost reduction.
3) in terms of brands, for air-conditioning categories, the double line price increase of Midea from January to February of 22 was greater than the industry average, and the volume and price of online channels increased simultaneously, further consolidating the brand share; Gree online channels to achieve volume and price increases. In the refrigerator category, Haier has a stable leading position. On the basis that the double line price increase is higher than that of the industry, the sales growth rate also outperformed the industry from January to February of 22. Under the influence of the price increase, Midea and Rongsheng online decreased slightly year-on-year. For the category of washing machines, Haier's online volume and price have risen simultaneously, and the growth rate of double line sales is better than the industry average; The volume of Little Swan online channels decreased and increased. The product price increase caused by the high price of raw materials still has a great impact on offline retail sales, and the offline channel sales of the three brands decreased year-on-year.
Kitchen power: online sales of smoke stoves have recovered, and the prosperity of integrated stoves has been highlighted
1) on the sales side, the traditional split type. In the past two years, under the influence of covid-19 epidemic, real estate regulation, slowing demand, accelerated penetration of integrated stoves and other comprehensive factors, the growth rate of online sales of cigarette stoves has gradually declined, and the offline growth rate has maintained negative growth. From January to February of 22, the online sales of smoke stoves improved, the growth rate of smoke engine rebounded from - 18.0% in 21q4 to + 1.7%, the decline of gas stoves narrowed from - 23.2% in 21q4 to - 4.9%, and the demand for traditional kitchen electricity recovered; The decline of offline channels is relatively stable, waiting for the real estate indicators and the epidemic situation to improve, superimposing the construction of low-level channels of traditional kitchen electric dragon hair force, which is expected to drive the gradual repair of offline sales of smoke stoves. The growth rate of emerging categories and dishwasher categories gradually slowed down after the peak of 20q2 heat; Under the influence of the high base formed by the demand for home and health caused by the epidemic, the sales volume of 21q2-21q4 industry decreased slightly compared with the same period; From January to February of 22, the growth rate of double track sales picked up year-on-year. With the further deepening of hardbound room matching rate and consumer education, the category is expected to accelerate the volume. For the integrated stove category, the double line sales volume increased year-on-year from January to February of 22 years, the online growth ring was relatively stable, and the offline growth slowed down. At the beginning of the year, the boss released new products of integrated stoves, which is expected to boost the consumer education of integrated stoves and further accelerate the penetration of the industry.
2) in terms of average price, from January to February of 22 years, the average price of flue gas turbine / stove / dishwasher / integrated stove was + 9.7% / + 10.2% / + 6.3% / + 31.2% year-on-year respectively, and the average price of offline was + 8.9% / + 8.0% / + 10.5% / + 13.2% year-on-year respectively. Under the influence of high bulk price in 21 years, the average price of the industry as a whole rose significantly year-on-year; On a month on month basis, the average price of cigarette stoves and dishwashers decreased from January to February, and the average price of integrated stoves rebounded compared with the end of 21. It is the only sub category in the kitchen electricity industry to realize the simultaneous rise of both volume and price, and the prosperity of the track is obvious.
3) in terms of brands, the sales growth of Fangtai and Fangtai stoves outperformed the industry from January to February of 22. Among them, the online channels of Fangtai stoves and Fangtai stoves achieved both volume and price increases, and the leading position was further consolidated; In the dishwasher track, the rapid decline of Siemens' share gives more room for domestic brands to increase volume. Thanks to the channel advantages and brand popularity of kitchen electric faucets, as well as the improvement of the penetration rate of categories in the hardcover market, the sales volume of dishwashers by boss and Fangtai from January to February significantly outperformed the industry level. The sales growth rate of boss's online channel was still ahead of the industry on the basis of year-on-year average price of + 14.9%, So as to double the sales volume. For integrated stoves, the sales volume / volume of Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) double line was ahead of other brands from January to February of 22, and the leading position was further established; Yitian is still the fastest growing brand, with online sales / volume of + 275.4% / + 203.4% year-on-year respectively. The volume and price of two-line channels have risen simultaneously, and the brand has strong development momentum.
Price trend of raw materials: on March 11, 2022, the spot settlement prices of SHFE copper and aluminum were 72230 and 22030 yuan / ton respectively; SHFE copper was - 0.84% and aluminum was - 6.43% compared with last week. Since 2022, copper price + 3.64%, aluminum price + 8.68%. On March 11, 2022, the price index of China plastic city was 103463, up from + 2.77% last week and + 4.19% since 2022. On March 11, 2022, the comprehensive price index of steel was 138.00, which was + 0.32% compared with the price last week and + 4.70% since 2022.
Investment suggestion: due to the uncertain repair intensity of short-term demand, rising cost, unknown overseas demand and other factors, the home appliance industry still belongs to the attribute of medium and long-term value allocation / defense on the basis of reasonable valuation, and the short-term trading strategy is based on band. In the short term, we believe that the targets with better performance visibility and data will stabilize, such as [ Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ], [ Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ], [ Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ], [ Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ], [ Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co.Ltd(603868) ], [ Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ], etc; In the medium and long term, it is still in a good position to gradually accumulate the target chips with growth. The growth comes from: 1) the acquisition of long-term overseas share, such as the high proportion of white electricity overseas and floor sweepers; 2) China's growth, such as clean appliances and new kitchen appliances; 3) Transformation of the second curve, such as auto zero, photovoltaic and other 2B businesses.
Risk tip: the expansion of the epidemic situation, the risk of fluctuations in the real estate market, exchange rate and raw material prices, etc.
