Sector market review
This week (03 / 07-03 / 11), the transportation index fell 5.38%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22%, underperformed the market by 1.16%, ranking 22 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the railway sector fell the least (- 3.23%), and the shipping sector fell the most (- 7.60%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: according to the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express delivery industry on March 1, the express delivery price in Zhejiang Province shall not be lower than the cost recently, and the express industry is developing to a higher quality. JD logistics plans to acquire Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) controlling shares, which will help the logistics networks and product categories of both parties complement each other, refine market division and service experience, integrate supply chain resources, improve network operation efficiency, reduce comprehensive operation costs, and continue to create greater value for customers. The State Post Office released the China Express development index report in February 2022. It is expected that the express business volume will increase by about 48% year-on-year, the express business revenue will increase by about 31%, the consolidated business volume from January to February will increase by 19% year-on-year, and the consolidated express business revenue will increase by 15% year-on-year. It is expected that the average daily business volume of express delivery will still be more than 300 million in March, and the scale of the industry will continue to expand. The performance of express enterprises has entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the main business data from January to February 2022. At present, the express business has completed 2.297 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The operating revenue was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.36% S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.4-2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%, deducting non net profit of 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%. SF intends to repurchase some of the company’s shares for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive. The total amount of funds to be repurchased shall not be less than RMB 1 billion and not more than RMB 2 billion, and the repurchase price shall not exceed RMB 70 / share.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the supervision becomes stricter, which limits the supply of the industry, and the demand side still grows every year. The performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain, focusing on Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) . The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Fuel surcharges for air routes in China will be raised to 40 yuan from March 20 or may 20. The national development and Reform Commission and other 14 departments issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, and suspended the advance payment of value-added tax by air transport enterprises for one year. Covid-19 antigen detection, home self-test landing, paxlovid is an important means to treat covid-19, and catalyzes the release of international expectations. According to the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development, the average annual growth of takeoff and landing sorties from 2019 to 2025 was 6.5%, lower than the previous growth rate of more than 10%, and the industry supply was tightened. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normal production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines, the restriction policy is expected to be relaxed, the operation of airports will be significantly improved, the investment value of the sector is prominent, and it is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 336601 points, down 0.67% month on month; The SCFI index was 462506 points, down 2.6% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI closed at 131200, down 11.0% month on month and up 82.2% year on year. The refined oil transportation index bcti closed at 105400, up 6.6% month on month and 109.1% year on year. We are concerned about the recovery of oil transportation.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
