Since 2021, the energy storage industry has entered a new round of outbreak. According to the statistics of GGII, the shipment of energy storage batteries in China in 2021 was 48gwh, a year-on-year increase of 2.6 times; We expect that the global energy storage installed capacity CAGR is expected to reach + 92.2% in 21-25 years. This report will focus on the subdivision track of energy storage industry – energy storage temperature control industry, and explore investment opportunities under the background of the outbreak of energy storage industry.
Why does the energy storage system need temperature control?
Energy storage and temperature control is the key to prevent capacity attenuation, short service life and thermal runaway of energy storage system. Due to the large number of batteries and large battery capacity and power in the energy storage system, effective battery thermal management is required, otherwise it may lead to the decline of battery charge and discharge performance, capacity and service life, and even lead to thermal out of control, resulting in safety accidents. In addition, the importance of energy storage and temperature control will continue to rise in the future under the general trend of large capacity of power generation side energy storage system and high rate of energy storage system battery for peak shaving and frequency modulation.
Technical trend of energy storage and temperature control?
Mainstream technology: at present, the temperature control of energy storage system mainly adopts air cooling and liquid cooling. The technologies under research include heat pipe cooling and phase change material cooling. The core difference is heat dissipation rate and cost. The structure of air cooling is simple, the cost is low, but the heat dissipation rate is the lowest; The heat dissipation rate of liquid cooling is higher than that of air cooling, but the structure is more complex and the cost is higher than that of air cooling. Heat pipe cooling and phase change material cooling are still in the laboratory stage, and the heat dissipation rate is higher, but the cost is also higher. Considering the time of R & D, new technology testing and certification, we think it is unlikely to be commercialized within 3-5 years. Technology trend: the proportion of liquid cooling is expected to rise in the medium term, but air cooling will still have its application scenarios. At present, energy storage and temperature control is mainly air-cooled, and the installed capacity of projects with relatively small power and power density accounts for a high proportion; However, in the medium term, the proportion of liquid cooling is expected to increase, mainly because the heating capacity of energy storage projects will continue to increase in the future, and air cooling can not meet the heat dissipation needs of some projects. However, the choice of technology direction is also related to the environment and calorific value of the project. In the medium term, the two technologies will still have their application scenarios.
Medium term market space of global energy storage and temperature control?
Core assumptions: 1) ASP: the value of single GWH air cooling and liquid cooling in 21 years is about 30 million and 90 million yuan, with an annual decrease of 5%; 2) 21. Installed capacity and proportion of liquid cooling in 25 years: the installed capacity of power generation side is 14 / 239gwh, and the proportion of liquid cooling is 30% / 55%; The installed capacity of power grid side is 2 / 25gwh, and liquid cooling accounts for 15% / 35%; The installed capacity of industry and commerce is 2 / 57gwh, and liquid cooling accounts for 15% / 30%; Household installed capacity is 4 / 77gwh, and liquid cooling accounts for 10% / 20%; The installed capacity of communication base station is 10 / 22gwh, and liquid cooling accounts for 10% / 25%. Market space: it is expected to be 1.4/21.1 billion yuan in 21 and 25 years respectively, with a 4-year CAGR + 95.9%, which is higher than the global installed capacity of energy storage. Combined with our core, the global market space is expected to be 1.4 billion yuan in 21 years, with air cooling and liquid cooling accounting for 80% / 20% respectively; In 25 years, the market space is 21.1 billion yuan, with air cooling and liquid cooling accounting for 58% / 42% respectively; CAGR reached 92% in 21-25 years.
Investment opportunities in energy storage and temperature control industry?
1) industry barriers: it is of little significance to discuss the issue of “who can make energy storage and temperature control products”. It is not difficult for enterprises with large scale and technology accumulation in highly similar industries to enter the energy storage and temperature control industry; Industry barriers come from non-standard advantages (including prefabricated, modular, customized and intelligent capabilities). Energy storage and temperature control have high technical requirements similar to precision air conditioning and industrial refrigeration equipment (both need to realize high-precision temperature and humidity control of industrial equipment). Therefore, it is not difficult for enterprises with accumulated technology in these industries to enter the energy storage and temperature control industry. The analysis of industry barriers needs to start from prefabrication, modularization, customization Intellectualization (dealing with the efficiency, cost, service and technical control ability of the project respectively) and other non-standard “soft power”.
2) industry investment opportunities: the increase in the proportion of liquid cooling brings about the expected improvement of ASP, and the growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate of large energy storage industry (energy storage and temperature control industry space CAGR + 96% and energy storage installed capacity CAGR + 92% in 21-25 years). The main reason for exceeding the demand growth rate of large industries is the expected increase in the proportion of liquid cooling caused by the increase in the demand for temperature control and heat dissipation rate, and the overall increase in ASP. We predict that the proportion of liquid cooling will increase from 20% to 42% in 21-25 years, and the average value of energy storage and temperature control industry will increase from 42 million yuan / GWH to 45 million yuan / GWH.
3) company investment opportunities: from the development trend of market pattern, we can see the investment opportunities of Companies in the industry at the current time point and medium-term level.
Industry pattern: compared with the precision air conditioning industry, the medium-term pattern may be “one super and many strong”. We believe that the energy storage and temperature control industry has high similarity with the precision air conditioning industry (technical similarity + non-standard capacity similarity). Therefore, it is reasonable to compare the development trend of the precision air conditioning industry and analyze and predict the development trend of the energy storage and temperature control industry at the medium-term level. At present, China’s computer room air conditioners are in the pattern of “one super and many strong”. Emerson, the advanced entrant, has a solid leading position, and other shares are occupied by Chinese companies. At the same time, the gross profit margin of major Chinese manufacturers is between 30% – 40%. We believe that in the medium term, the energy storage and temperature control industry may have a similar evolution path – the market pattern is “one super and many strong”, and the profitability is relatively high and stable.
Current time point: companies that have obtained large-scale shipments can obtain the first mover advantage. At the current time point, the growth rate of the industry is fast enough (the industry market space is expected to be yoy + 187% / 83% in 22-23 years). Companies that have obtained large-scale shipments are expected to achieve high business growth. It is suggested to pay attention to companies with obvious conservative first mover advantages [ Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ].
Medium term level: the number of participants and pattern differentiation test the company’s non-standard ability. At the medium-term level, multiple suppliers may be developed downstream to improve bargaining power and ensure supply chain security. Therefore, under the expectation of changes in industry participants and pattern differentiation, it is necessary to consider the ability of each company’s non-standard advantages to obtain market share. We believe that companies that are expected to open up market share through non-standard advantages include [ Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ] (rich accumulation of prefabricated, modular, customized and intelligent technologies), [ Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) ] (high-precision temperature control of liquid is the greatest advantage), [ Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) ] (software development ability of temperature control equipment is the greatest advantage).
Investment suggestion: in the short term, companies with first mover advantage are preferred to benefit from the high growth rate of energy storage and temperature control industry, and in the medium term, companies are expected to open up market share through non-standard advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to: Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) .
Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) : one of the earliest enterprises in the energy storage and temperature control industry, with obvious first mover advantage – the company is a leading enterprise in China’s precision air conditioning industry. It has rich air cooling and liquid cooling technology accumulation in the field of precision air conditioning. With technology accumulation and priority layout, it has become one of the earliest enterprises in the energy storage and temperature control industry. In 2020 In 2021h1, the operating revenue from energy storage applications is nearly 100 million yuan and about 150 million yuan respectively, with obvious first mover advantage; In the medium term, the company has outstanding non-standard advantages and is expected to continue to expand market share and stabilize the leading position in the industry through technology migration – the company has outstanding non-standard advantages such as prefabrication, modularization, customization and intellectualization accumulated in the precision air conditioning business, and is expected to transfer technology to the energy storage and temperature control business and continue to open up market share.
Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) : at present, the business volume of energy storage and temperature control is small, but the ability of high-precision temperature control is outstanding. It is expected to open market share in the medium term. The company is a service provider of industrial refrigeration solutions. At present, the business volume of energy storage and temperature control is still small (it has cooperated with sunshine energy storage and other companies), but in the medium term, the company has outstanding high-precision temperature control ability of liquid (the temperature control accuracy of the technology under research can reach ± 0.1 ℃), which is expected to open the market share of energy storage and temperature control liquid cooling with this non-standard advantage. In addition, The company also accumulated modularization + customization ability in the early stage.
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) : at present, the business volume of energy storage and temperature control is small, but the software development ability of temperature control equipment is outstanding, and the market share is expected to be opened in the medium term. The company is an overall solution provider for thermal management in the power electronics industry. At present, the business volume of energy storage and temperature control is still small (it has cooperated with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other companies). However, in the medium term, the company has outstanding software development ability. It has pure water cooling equipment control system software customized according to cooling objects and product characteristics, with autonomy, customization It is expected to open the market share of energy storage temperature control liquid cooling with this advantage in the future.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Industry demand is less than expected; The iteration of energy storage technology exceeded expectations; Risk of increased competition; The calculation is subjective and for reference only.
