The semiconductor industry continues to be highly prosperous, wafer factories actively expand production, and the delivery time of overseas semiconductor equipment is extended. Driven by the rapid growth demand of automobile, aiot and HPC, it is expected that the chip shortage will not be greatly alleviated in 2022, and the high enthusiasm of wafer factories to expand production will drive the continuous high prosperity of semiconductor equipment industry. According to semi's prediction, the global semiconductor equipment sales will reach 114 billion US dollars in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, of which the wafer factory equipment sales will reach 99 billion US dollars in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. Due to the unprecedented intensity and duration of the expansion of the wafer factory in the past two years, and the shortage of spare parts required by the superimposed semiconductor equipment, the supply of semiconductor equipment has exceeded the demand, and the delivery time has been further extended. According to the financial report meeting of applied materials, the total backlog of orders for applied materials reached US $8 billion in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of US $1.3 billion over the previous quarter. At the same time, the production capacity is nearly sold out in 2022, indicating a sustained growth in 23 years. According to the collection micro network report, in January of 2022, Wu Wankun, general manager of China Taiwan region, said that the demand for logic chips was strong, and that the shortage of chips and some raw materials was affected, and the delivery time of the equipment extended to at least six months.
The delivery time of semiconductor equipment has been extended, the independent and controllable demand of the supply chain has been superimposed, and the domestic substitution has entered the golden age. According to semi, in 2020 and 2021, China is the country with the largest sales of semiconductor equipment in the world. According to the public bidding data of Fab factory, the penetration rate of domestic equipment is low and there is huge room for domestic substitution. With the extension of global equipment delivery time, many domestic semiconductor equipment companies are also full of orders. However, compared with overseas equipment, domestic equipment has relatively good delivery time, faster response speed and better supporting services, which has considerable advantages. At the same time, with the demand of independent and controllable industrial chain, there will be more opportunities for verification and replacement in fab plant, and the penetration rate of domestic equipment is expected to be further improved. According to our industrial chain and data tracking, at present, domestic semiconductor equipment has penetrated into most semiconductor production links. Among them, the localization rate is relatively high in the fields of cleaning, dry degumming, gelatinization and development, CMP grinding, heat treatment, etching and PVD, while ion implantation, CVD, ALD, lithography, film thickness and CD measurement, defect detection and other fields still mainly rely on imports, There is much room for improvement.
It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) ] China's semiconductor equipment leader, multi business layout, ICP etching, PVD, processing and cleaning equipment; [ Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) ] domestic etching equipment leader, CCP etching, CVD and measuring equipment; [ Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) ] cleaning equipment faucet, cleaning machine and high-purity process system; [shengmei Shanghai] China's leading cleaning equipment, cleaning machine, electroplating / wet packaging equipment and furnace tube equipment; [ Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) ] test equipment platform layout, digital testing machine is expected to bring a new round of high growth, sorting machine, AOI, analog testing machine and digital testing machine; [ Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) ] analog tester faucet, analog tester and digital tester; [ Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) ] China's leader in gluing and developing equipment, gluing / developing machine, degumming machine and cleaning machine; [ Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) ] China's leading ion implanter, ion implanter.
Risk tip: Sino US trade friction affects the import of some core parts; The R & D Progress of Chinese equipment manufacturers is less than expected; The expansion of Fab plant was less than expected.
