China industry data tracking: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) announced that it is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 2.4 billion yuan from January to February. The company released the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. It is expected to realize an operating revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan during the period, with a year-on-year increase of 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 2.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 18.32%.
From January to February 2022, the cumulative passenger throughput of Meilan Airport was about 3.62 million person times, a year-on-year increase of + 35.7%, returning to 74% in the same period in 2019; The cumulative passenger throughput of Sanya Phoenix International Airport was about 3.6 million person times, a year-on-year increase of + 26.6%, returning to 85% of the level in the same period in 2019.
Foreign industry data tracking: the impact of the epidemic in Omikron, South Korea has expanded. 380000 cases were newly confirmed on March 11 and 350000 cases were newly confirmed on March 12. As of March 12, 2022, a total of 6.556 million people had been diagnosed with covid-19 in South Korea. In January 2022, the sales volume of Korean duty-free stores in that month was only US $974 million (about RMB 6.1 billion), with a year-on-year increase of – 22.73% and a month on month increase of – 16.39%, the lowest in 19 months.
Investment suggestion: in the context of consumption return, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) [ China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) . Sh] is the leader in the tax-free industry. The company’s cost control ability and store operation have a significant scale effect. It is expected that the pattern of “one super and many strong” will be stable in the long term. Three factors are expected to further enhance the company’s scale advantage and profitability: (1) the penetration rate on the demand side is improved; (2) the company’s continuous category improvement and operation improvement on the supply side; (3) the new harbor project further strengthens and improves the volume, SKU and customer group coverage. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 9.591 billion yuan / 11.757 billion yuan / 16.509 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 38.02/31.02/22.09 respectively.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Promotion discount rate fluctuation; Changes in immigration policies.
