Market review. As of March 11, 2022, Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell by 7.03% this week, 2.81 percentage points lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 29th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell 9.71% this month, 3.71 percentage points lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 31st among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals sector has fallen 5.57% year to date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 7.26 percentage points and ranking seventh among Shenwan 31 industries.
As of March 11, 2022, among the sub sectors of non-ferrous metals industry, precious metals rose by 1.98%, industrial metals fell by 6.48%, small metals fell by 7.04%, new metal materials fell by 6.91% and energy metals fell by 10.93%.
Zhou’s view on the nonferrous metals industry. Industrial metals. At present, the global downstream demand for aluminum is the same as that in previous years. The interruption of Russian supply is bound to exacerbate the tension at the overseas aluminum supply side. Although the output of electrolytic aluminum in China has increased, the rate of resumption of production is relatively slow. At present, the shortage of supply in overseas markets will dominate the trend of aluminum price. It is expected that the aluminum price will be high and volatile in the short term. In terms of copper, the overall market is worried about the restrictions on the import and export volume of Russian copper. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a surge in European energy prices, which has raised the costs of metal mining and smelting enterprises and promoted the rise of Lun copper. China’s downstream market has a wait-and-see attitude towards high copper prices, and real estate and infrastructure projects have not significantly warmed up. Compared with previous years, downstream orders are cold, and Shanghai copper passively followed Lun copper. The recent dispute between Russia and Ukraine triggered sharp fluctuations in the international nickel price, and the sharp rise in LME nickel price has deviated from the fundamentals. LME announced to cancel all nickel transactions after 00:00 UK time on March 8 and delay the spot nickel delivery originally scheduled for March 9. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ), Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) ( Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) ), Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ( Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ). noble metal. On Thursday, March 10 local time, the data released by the US Bureau of labor statistics showed that the US inflation rate continued to rise in February, with the year-on-year growth rate of CPI rising to 7.9% and the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI rising to 6.4%. On the other hand, the European Central Bank held an interest rate meeting on Thursday to significantly improve its forecast of inflation in 2022. The European Central Bank‘s monetary policy decision shows that the scale of bond purchase in May and June will be reduced from the originally planned 40 billion euros per month to 30 billion euros and 20 billion euros respectively. In the face of worldwide high inflation, Europe and the United States are expected to adopt more stringent monetary tightening policies. Despite the great uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may still increase interest rates to maintain financial stability, and the rising trend of gold is under pressure. Energy metals. Lithium resources are still in short supply, and lithium salt market continues to rise. This week, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise, breaking the 500000 yuan / ton mark. As the development cycle of lithium ore in the upstream is 2-3 years and the time is long, with the high growth of demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream, the future development sustainability of lithium industry is good. It is recommended to pay attention to Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ( Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ), Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ), Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) ( Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) ).
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; The monetary policy tightening of the Federal Reserve and the European central bank exceeded expectations; Prices of energy metals and rare earths fell; The downstream demand of nonferrous metals is lower than expected; The impact of the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the fluctuation of industrial metal prices.
