Sub industry core week view
Fear “lithium” is expected to have been fully priced, and the industrial chain will be gradually transmitted and digested from March to May. Since the beginning of the 22nd year, the market has been worried about high lithium car injury, which is compounded by the shutdown of some car enterprises for high-cost models and the reduction of orders in the off-season, which strengthens the pessimistic expectation of the market; At the macro level, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has strengthened the expectation of stagflation. At the current stage, we believe that the deduction and pricing of EPS and valuation in the electric vehicle sector have been relatively sufficient since the beginning of the year. We estimate that at present, the price of lithium carbonate in the industrial chain has been digested to 300000 level, and the price of 500000 lithium carbonate will be gradually digested from March to may, and the fear of lithium in the market is expected to be fully priced.
Grassroots research shows that the terminal is still strong, high lithium prices are superimposed on high oil prices, and the attraction of electric vehicles to consumers has not weakened. This week’s grassroots survey showed that the new orders of the head company continued to grow. On the one hand, the economic advantages of electric vehicles over fuel vehicles have been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. We estimate that the relative economic advantage of electric vehicles will not be weakened when the oil price and lithium price rise equally. The continued rise in oil prices has hedged the impact of lithium prices on the demand for electric vehicles. Especially in Europe and the United States, the soaring oil price will further highlight the advantages of electric vehicles; On the other hand, under the expectation of electric vehicle price rise, consumers’ purchase intention will increase.
Don’t carve the boat and seek the sword. In 22 years, we should “light the total amount and heavy the structure”. The 21st year is a great year for the research on the total amount of electric vehicles. In the 22nd year, we believe that it is more important to light the total amount and focus on the structure, and find points with higher structure than expected or high certainty. According to the historical experience of resumption, the impact of previous sharp fluctuations in the cost side of the automobile industry on the structure is far greater than the total amount. (1) Terminal: market segmentation and car enterprise differentiation. We believe that the high-end electric vehicle market and the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 plug-in hybrid market have strong cost transmission ability. From the perspective of auto enterprises, they are optimistic about the head supply chain of Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) and so on. At present, the two new orders continue to exceed expectations; (2) Midstream: three stock selection logic. 1) Focus on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain targets. Select stocks around the logic of penetration rate and localization rate, and pay attention to the penetration of new technologies. These logics are not affected by the logic of total amount and have strong cashing strength. Direction of penetration improvement: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), pet copper foil, silicon carbon, heat management heat pump, integrated casting, HEPA and other fields; 2) The direction of improving localization rate: high-end carbon black, controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT and other fields; 3) Through cyclical fluctuations and strong competitiveness Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other battery and material links.
Important industry events this week
1. Tesla Europe delivery tracking and comments. 2. Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) comments: re obtain the orders for air suspension and thermal management of head vehicle enterprises. 3. The high view of electric vehicles continued, and the sales volume in February exceeded expectations. 4. Comments on the price rise of domestic Tesla. 5. Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) 2021 annual performance express comments: the performance is close to the upper limit of the forecast, the process is leading, and the category expansion opens up the market space. 6. Intelligent series research: repeat the consumer electronic acoustics, and be optimistic about the upgrading of automobile acoustics and domestic substitution. 7. Comments on the monthly data of power battery in February: the output increased by 236.2% year-on-year, and the loading volume increased by 145.1% year-on-year. We continue to be optimistic about the market of the sector.
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
See the text on the next page for details.
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
