Weekly view:
In February, residents’ medium and long-term loans grew negatively for the first time: on March 11, the central bank released financial statistics for February. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, household loans decreased by 336.9 billion yuan. Among them, short-term loans decreased by 291.1 billion yuan; Medium and long-term loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, the first negative growth since statistics.
Real estate mortgage loans are an important part of residents’ medium and long-term loans. The weakening of medium and long-term credit reflects the continuous decline of real estate sales. The few days in February combined with the Spring Festival holiday have a negative impact on the sales of that month, but the lack of consumer demand is still the fundamental reason for the decline of market prosperity. We expect that the loose policies on the demand side in various regions will continue to be promoted to meet the reasonable needs of home buyers.
Three places released information on centralized land supply: 1) on March 10, Chongqing announced the launch of 13 commercial and residential land for the first time, with a total of about 1.471 million cubic meters; 2) On March 10, Changsha announced the listing of 22 residential land, with a total land area of about 119.23 hectares; 3) On March 7, Chengdu announced the launch of 50 plots totaling 31224 mu, which will be auctioned from March 31 to April 2.
Spatially, the above three places have increased the supply of high-quality plots in the central urban area, which is conducive to the de marketing of land acquisition real estate enterprises. In terms of profitability, Changsha proposed “price supervision according to development quality and other factors” for the first time, and the price limit in Chengdu was almost comprehensively raised. We believe that the improvement of supply side policies is conducive to improving the willingness of enterprises to acquire land and guiding positive market expectations.
We believe that in 2022, the real estate sector will usher in investment opportunities with continuous improvement of policies and continuous optimization of the competition pattern of real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Industry tracking
Sales review (03.05-03.11): the total transaction area of 33 key monitoring cities was 2.677 million m2, down 23.3% from last week; In 2022, a total of 31.453 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 36.2%. Among them, the first tier cities sold 502000 square meters, down 16.5% from last week. In 2022, a total of 6.391 million square meters were sold, down 27.4% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.39 million square meters, down 17.3% from last week. In 2022, a total of 15.389 million square meters were sold, down 18.6% year-on-year; The volume of transactions in the third tier cities was 785000 square meters, down 34.7% from last week. The cumulative volume of transactions in 2022 was 9.674 million square meters, down 55.1% year-on-year.
Land supply (02.28-03.06): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 5.5 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 53.94 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 60.0%, and the supply-demand ratio is 1.1. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 7738 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 8142 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 1.5% and a year-on-year increase of 161.3%.
Land transaction (02.28-03.06): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 1.81 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction of 48.93 million square meters in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 66.2%. In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 4353 yuan / m2, a month on month increase of 134.3%, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and the overall premium rate was 0.6%. In 2022, the average floor price was 4057 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%, and the premium rate was 3.3%, a decrease of 13.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
