Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: production and sales increased steadily year-on-year in February, and the performance of new energy is still excellent
In February, China’s automobile production and sales were 1.813 million and 1.737 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6% and 18.7% respectively. The performance was stable and slightly better than expected. As automobile enterprises continue to speed up the pace of new product listing, it is expected that the automobile market is expected to show a steady growth trend in the first quarter. At the same time, affected by the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the external environment of the industry is more complex, the shortage of chips, the continuous rise of raw material costs and other factors still affect the production and operation of enterprises, and the task of maintaining supply and price stability is very arduous.
Passenger cars: continue to lead the industry, and the performance of independent brands and high-end brands is still eye-catching. In February, the production and sales of passenger cars were 1.534 million and 1.487 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32% and 27.8% respectively. From January to February, the market share of independent brands reached 44.6%. The recovery trend of SAIC deserves attention, and the cumulative sales volume of high-end brands increased by 20% year-on-year.
Commercial vehicles: enter the adjustment period. In February, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 279000 and 250000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% and 16.6% respectively. Affected by demand overdraft and emission upgrading policies, the performance is obviously weak.
New energy: excellent performance. In February, 368000 and 334000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2 times and 1.8 times respectively, and the penetration rate was 19.2% Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric and plug-in hybrid two wheel drive consolidate the leading position of independent brand new energy. Traditional automobile enterprises represented by Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) are relatively outstanding in the new energy sector. The sales volume of new power auto enterprises performed better year-on-year and month on month. Volkswagen’s firm electric transformation strategy has achieved initial results, and other joint ventures and luxury brands still need to work.
Market review:
As of the closing on March 11, the auto sector was – 4.8%, and the CSI 300 index was – 4.2%. The decline of the auto sector was 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the CSI 300 index. In terms of sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 19th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, with poor performance. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been – 19%, ranking 28th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
Performance of weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: all sectors fell to varying degrees, with comprehensive passenger vehicles (- 6.7%), tire hubs (- 6.5%), commercial trucks (- 6.4%) and body accessories and accessories (- 6.3%).
Up and down performance of sub sectors since the beginning of the year: all sectors have fallen sharply, with automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 24.2%), tire hubs (- 24.1%), comprehensive passenger vehicles (- 23.9%) and commercial trucks (- 23%) leading the decline.
Top five gainers and Losers: Zhonglu.Co.Ltd(600818) , Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Limited Company(603335) , Chaoda equipment, Wuxi Commercial Mansion Grand Orient Co.Ltd(600327) .
The top five in terms of price rise and fall: Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co.Ltd(002265) , neutag, Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Anhui Quanchai Engine Co.Ltd(600218) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The automobile sector should pay more attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow and the companies whose valuation center is improved. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to: competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc. High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , etc; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and sales fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) etc.
Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
