Weekly talk: pile foundation and tower of wind power engineering materials
Pile foundation and tower of wind power engineering materials: according to the national energy administration, the new pile foundation capacity of wind power in China in 2021 was about 47.57gw, of which the new installed capacity of offshore wind power was 16.9gw, with a total of 26.39gw, with a year-on-year increase of 452%. The long-term growth trend of wind power industry has strong certainty. Wind power tower and pile foundation are a model of traditional industries rejuvenated in new energy industry. The enterprise is essentially a steel structure processing enterprise, which adopts the method of (raw materials + processing fee) for pricing. It has strong conduction ability for the price rise of upstream raw materials, and has certain similarities with building steel structure manufacturers. The industry has broad space and strong willingness to expand, and the growth will continue. The scale of the tower industry is growing rapidly, the leading performance of the tower industry is growing rapidly, and the growth elasticity of Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) is greater than that of Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) the existing production capacity is 1 million tons, and the peak value is expected to reach 1.3 million tons Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) there are 700000 tons, and the cumulative production capacity will reach 2.5 million tons by the end of 2023.
The advantages of steel structure processing leader span industries: both wind power tower and building steel structure manufacturing belong to steel structure processing industry. However, through comparison, we find that the steel structure manufacturing leader Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) leads in raw material procurement and period cost rate, and has significant scale advantages. The raw materials of wind tower manufacturing account for 81.95%, the steel accounts for about 65% of the total cost, and the steel cost of building steel structure accounts for about 79%. Construction steel structure leader Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) has significant advantages in raw material procurement. The purchase cost of steel is lower than Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) 532 yuan per ton Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) period, the expense rate is about 4.5pcts lower. The trend of leading expense rate of the two industries is that with the expansion of scale, the expense rate during the period decreases, and the expense rate during Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) 21q3 is only 5.69%.
Tracking of key sub industries:
Glass: just need to recover gradually. As of March 11, the average price of the latest glass in China was 234842 yuan / ton, down 2.02% from the previous week. The demand recovery is relatively slow, and the demand of downstream processing plants is still recovering slowly. The short-term inventory is difficult to improve significantly, and the manufacturer is still willing to support the price at this stage. The total inventory of production enterprises in key monitoring provinces was 50.72 million weight boxes, an increase of 4 million weight boxes or 8.56% over the previous week. The expected resumption of price rise requires the logical catalysis of two main lines: the real demand of the downstream exceeds the expectation or the contraction of the supply side, and the market may be dominated in the short term. The completion demand exists objectively, but it needs the improvement of the real estate capital chain. The short-term shock does not change the long business cycle of the glass industry. The annual net profit of the glass leader is expected to remain at a high level, and there is no risk of downward cycle. Continue to focus on recommending Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , which has entered a new growth period, and the integrated leading Lutheran glass with continuously increasing market share.
Cement: in the medium and short term of demand recovery, pay attention to the squeeze of coal price on profits. As of March 11, 2022, the national average price of cement was 476.5 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of last week. Market demand and supply side production are also recovering. In the short term, the performance of the cement sector depends on the expected changes. We believe that the demand for cement will pick up in an all-round way. The inventory of enterprises decreased slightly compared with last week, and the average national clinker storage capacity ratio was 59.03%, down 3.08 PCTs compared with last week. The operating load of the mill was 39.98%, up 8.53 PCTs month on month. The average price difference between cement and coal in this period was 291.38 yuan / ton, down 12.21% from last Thursday. Compared with the same period last year, the average price difference between cement and coal decreased by 13.55%.
Consumer building materials: due to the wind of real estate recovery and valuation repair, real estate sales were quite sluggish from January to February, and the decline of residents' medium and long-term loans in social finance data was verified again. We expect that the policy side will continue to support the real estate recovery, and pay attention to the cities that follow the policy of entering and leaving Taiwan after Zhengzhou. After the industry impairment crisis, the emphasis on business quality will slightly loosen the accelerator of growth. The leading performance is less than expected, triggering a chain reaction to the growth of consumer building materials. We believe that the logic of expanding categories and improving concentration has not changed, and high-quality enterprises with alpha attribute such as Yuhong and Weixing are still scarce varieties. Continue to recommend the leading consumer building materials Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , China Liansu.
Market review: as of the closing on March 11, the building materials sector fell 4.31% and the CSI 300 index fell 4.22%. From the sector ranking, the building materials sector ranked 17th among Shenwan 31 sectors last week, with an increase of - 13.3% year to date, and ranked 20th among Shenwan 31 sectors.
The top five stocks with weekly gains: Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) , Luoyang Northglass Technology Co.Ltd(002613) , Beijing Hanjian Heshan Pipeline Co.Ltd(603616) , Zyf Lopsking Aluminum Co.Ltd(002333) , St Yabo.
The top five weekly declines of individual stocks: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xiamen Wanli Stone Stock Co.Ltd(002785) , Chongqing Sifang New Material Co.Ltd(605122) , Ningbo Fuda Company Limited(600724) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) .
Investment strategy: focus on recommending Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , the industry leader Xinyi Glass whose consumption attribute is dominant in building materials, the strong and constant strong Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , the traditional business maintains high prosperity and enters a new growth period at the same time, and the market share continues to increase; It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of engineering plastic pipe and China Liansu and the leader of steel structure Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , which benefit from infrastructure investment, and recommend the cement sector with underestimated value and high dividend under the expectation of steady growth.
Risk tip: the demand of real estate chain declines, infrastructure investment slows down, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
