Event: the people’s Bank of China disclosed the financial data of February 2022, and the new credit in February was 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan; Social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan, lower than market expectations. Our comments are as follows:
\u3000\u30001. The negative growth of residents’ medium and long-term loans for the first time has become one of the factors hindering credit growth. In February, the newly increased medium – and long-term loans to residents were – 45.9 billion yuan, the lowest since the statistics were available. It is expected that the main influencing factors are as follows:
① when the demand for stock mortgage loans is released, the demand for new mortgage loans is relatively weak. According to the data disclosed by the central bank, mortgage loans account for about 75% of residents’ medium and long-term loans. The release of mortgage credit has a great impact on Residents’ medium and long-term loans. Since October last year, with the support of policies, commercial banks have accelerated the supply of mortgage credit. At present, the backlog of mortgage loan demand has been basically released.
Kerry data show that in February this year, the full caliber sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises were 463.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.5%, negative year-on-year growth for eight consecutive months, and the decline continued to expand, and the demand for new mortgages further declined.
② the medium and long-term operating loans of residents are expected to show negative growth. The proportion of residents’ medium and long-term business loans accounts for about 15% of residents’ medium and long-term loans. In February this year, an epidemic broke out in many places across the country, and many stores, small and micro enterprises were closed. This round of epidemic was concentrated in economically developed areas such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and the Yangtze River Delta, which are the main force of business loans. Therefore, We expect that the epidemic will lead to weak demand for medium and long-term personal business loans and negative growth of relevant loans, similar to the most serious stage of the epidemic in February 2020.
\u3000\u30002. The effective financing demand of enterprises is still weak. In February, corporate loans increased by 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 40 billion yuan year-on-year. From the perspective of structure, corporate short-term loans and bill financing increased by 716.3 billion yuan, an increase of 652.1 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate medium and long-term loans decreased by 594.8 billion yuan year-on-year. After the projects reserved by the bank at the end of last year were accelerated in January, the effective credit demand decreased significantly in February.
\u3000\u30003. The growth rate of social finance declined slightly, and the credit expansion was blocked in the short term. In February, social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan. In addition to the credit falling short of expectations, undiscounted bills decreased by 486.7 billion yuan, which was the main drag. At the end of February, the growth rate of social financing stock was 10.2%, which was 0.3pc lower than that at the end of January. Looking back at the steady growth stage in the first half of 2019, there was also a phased decline in social financing growth (the growth rate of social financing stock decreased by 0.3pc and 0.4pc month on month in February and April 2019 respectively). The fluctuation of social financing growth caused by short-term factors did not affect the medium-term trend of credit expansion at that time.
At the present stage, the crux of the continuous expansion of credit lies in the simultaneous contraction of demand of residents and enterprise departments. In this regard, we believe that: ① in the past few months, more than 40 cities have relaxed the real estate regulation policies and strengthened the adjustment of demand side policies. However, due to the pessimistic expectation for the future and the lack of residents’ willingness to buy houses, they are still in a wait-and-see state, It will take time for the policy to be transmitted to the improvement of mortgage demand. ② This year’s government work report puts steady growth in a more prominent position. Infrastructure development and real estate relaxation are expected to be important starting points for stabilizing the economy. Under the established GDP growth target of about 5.5%, we don’t need to doubt the methods and means used to achieve this target.
\u3000\u30004. For bank stocks, the current contradiction is that the micro operation of banks is still good, the performance growth rate and credit risk are improving, and the valuation of some high-quality stocks is in a low position. However, investors’ macro expectations are unclear or even weak, resulting in lack of confidence in holding or buying bank stocks, which will indeed increase the volatility of bank stocks in the short term, For the conflict between macro expectation and micro operation, external forces need to break this balance, and the continuous and intensive implementation of stable growth policy is the best catalyst.
In the coming months, we believe that the continuous introduction of stable growth policies and the accelerated relaxation of real estate policies are still probability events. For the banking sector, there is no need to be too pessimistic.
Individual stocks can be selected along two ideas: first, the valuation is low β Strong attributes, benefiting from the implementation of stable growth policies, and focusing on Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) ; Second, have α Excellent logic, fundamentals and outstanding business model. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tip: the steady growth policy is less than expected, and the risk exposure of the real estate industry is accelerated
