Industrial metal prices rose first and then fell. Lun nickel is an extreme market
Affected by geopolitics and external capital factors, LME nickel price soared, with an intraday maximum of US $101365 / ton. Subsequently, LME announced the suspension of nickel trading. As Ukraine claimed to consider compromise, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine showed signs of easing. This week, industrial metal prices rose first and then fell, while LME copper fell – 5.37% to close at US $10101 / ton; LME aluminum fell – 9.59% to close at US $3480 / ton; LME lead fell – 6.61% to close at US $2296.5/ton; LME zinc fell – 5.46% to close at US $3830 / ton; LME tin fell – 6.92% to close at US $44250 / ton; LME nickel rose 66.10% to close at US $48033 / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) .
Energy metals are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and rare earth prices are slightly corrected
The China Automobile Association released the production and sales data of new energy passenger vehicles in February. The production and sales reached 368000 and 334000 respectively, up more than 180% year-on-year and down about 20% month on month. In the short term, the imbalance between lithium salt supply and demand is still difficult to alleviate. At the same time, high nickel batteries drive the demand for lithium hydroxide. Industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 2.06% this week to close at 495000 yuan / ton; Battery grade lithium carbonate rose 1.78% to close at 514000 yuan / ton; Lithium hydroxide rose 6.64% to close at 481916 yuan / ton. Since key rare earth enterprises were interviewed, rare earth prices fell for the first time this week, and praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell – 3.62% to close at 1.065 million yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) .
Strengthening market supervision, China’s industrial metal prices fall
On March 7, the deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission pointed out the need to strengthen the linkage supervision of the futures and spot market and severely crack down on the fabrication and dissemination of price increase information, hoarding and other illegal acts. On the demand side, with the arrival of the traditional peak consumption season, the recovery of downstream demand is worth looking forward to; In the context of steady growth, we continue to be optimistic about the price of industrial metals. This week, the prices of industrial metals other than nickel fell, and copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell – 0.81% to close at 72130 yuan / ton; Aluminum fell – 6.77% to close at 21925 yuan / ton; Lead fell – 1.16% to close at 15255 yuan / ton; Zinc fell – 1.18% to close at 25600 yuan / ton; Tin rose 0.43% to close at 341650 yuan / ton; Nickel rose 17.97% to close at 222190 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , etc.
High inflation and risk aversion in Russia and Ukraine
The price of gold hit a new high of 2078.0 US dollars / ounce in London and reached a new high of 2078.0 US dollars / ounce in London due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; Subsequently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine showed signs of suspension, and the price of gold fell. Meanwhile, the US Department of labor announced that the US CPI in February increased by 7.9% year-on-year, a record high. This week, spot gold in London rose 0.88% to close at US $199668/oz, while the US dollar index rose 0.62% to close at 99.13; COMEX gold rose 1.31% to US $198500/oz and Comex Silver Rose 1.67% to US $26.16/oz this week. Although the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle is approaching, high inflation may continue, and gold prices are expected to continue to rise.
Risk tip: geopolitical risk and downstream demand are less than expected.
