Crude oil: prices fluctuated and fell. Early in the week, the United States and Iran may reach an Iran nuclear agreement, which may increase Iran’s crude oil exports, but Russia’s exports continue to be blocked. In addition, after Russia entered the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, it is worried about the interruption of oil and gas supply, and the crude oil price fell first and then rose. Later in the week, the United States and Britain announced an import ban on Russia, and Putin signed special economic measures to ban import and export. The time for Iraq’s crude oil to return to the global market may be delayed. However, Ukraine hinted at compromise to cool the market situation, and the United States tried to encourage the increase of crude oil supply from other aspects. The crude oil price fluctuated and fell, but the oil price is still higher than that of the previous week. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 118.68 (+ 11.62) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 115.14 (+ 11.63) USD / barrel.
PX: the market rose sharply. The performance of crude oil market is relatively strong. Driven by the cost side, the international PX price is rising. On the supply side, there is no obvious change in the market supply during the week, and the fluctuation adjustment of the device is the main. Demand side: the downstream PTA’s demand for raw materials continued to weaken. During the week, the load of two sets of 6.6 million T / a PTA units in East China increased, and a set of 2.25 million T / a PTA unit in Northeast China restarted on March 10; A 2.5 million T / a PTA plant in Northeast China was overhauled on March 10. The overall commencement of PTA market still showed a downward trend, and the demand for raw materials continued to decline. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 124823 (+ 95.18) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 374.56 (+ 3.07) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 118.42 (- 8.94) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 82.64% (- 0.47pct).
PTA: market wide adjustment and overall rise. During the week, the load of two sets of 6.6 million T / a PTA units in East China was increased, and one set of 2.25 million T / a PTA unit in Northeast China was restarted on March 10; A 2.5 million T / a PTA plant in Northeast China was overhauled on March 10, and the overall commencement of PTA market still showed a downward trend. During the week, the downstream polyester market price adjusted upward with the raw material price, but the terminal market had a certain attitude of resistance to the high cost, and the polyester production and sales performance has always been flat. At present, the overall start-up of polyester is above 90%, the downstream polyester demand has not been significantly improved, and the polyester factory inventory is high. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 634071 (+ 528.57) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is -56.55 (+ 108.31) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 67.60% (+ 0.40pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 2043000 (- 112000) tons.
MEG: market prices rise first and then decline. Crude oil prices fell back after rising, but the price is still high, and the cost support remains. From the supply side, in terms of the start-up of Chinese units this week, a 300000 ton ethylene glycol unit in East China was shut down for maintenance, but the weekly load of individual coal to ethylene glycol units increased. Therefore, the output of ethylene glycol in China increased rather than decreased this week. In terms of demand, the overall recovery of terminal weaving demand is still less than expected. Terminal factories are cautious in purchasing raw materials, which makes the overall production and sales of the polyester industry light. However, the operating load of the polyester industry remains high, and the overall performance of the demand side is relatively stable. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 552429 (+ 506.43) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 950700 (- 12400) tons, and the operating rate is 69.00% (- 1.60pct).
Polyester filament: market wide upward. At the beginning of the week, the international oil price once soared, the cost pressure was prominent, and the filament enterprises raised their quotations one after another, but the terminal demand was sluggish, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream users was not strong, and the market shipment was light. In the middle of the week, the United States and Britain announced a ban on the import of Russian crude oil, and the international oil price continued to rise. Under the cost pressure, the filament cash flow was in a state of loss, and the market price continued to rise. However, the downstream procurement only maintained rigid demand, and the production and sales data were general. At present, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine may take a turn for the better, the international oil price will fall sharply, and the polyester raw materials will also decline, which will drag down the market mentality, the on-site wait-and-see mood is strong, and the willingness to continue purchasing in the downstream is reduced. At present, the average weekly price of polyester filament is POY 856429 (+ 478.57) yuan / ton, FDY 887143 (+ 410.71) yuan / ton and DTY 1011429 (+ 428.57) yuan / ton. The average profit per ton of the industry is POY + 55.10 (- 98.35) yuan / ton, fdy-6.53 (- 143.39) yuan / ton and DTY + 221.03 (- 131.54) yuan / ton respectively. The inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are POY 25.00 (- 2.20) days FDY 26.50 (- 4.00) days and dty29 00 (- 2.50) days, operating rate 89.50% (+ 0.20pct).
Weaving: the start-up increased month on month. The international oil price is running at a high level, and the polyester filament market is rising. At present, the number of downstream orders is rare, mostly small batch summer orders in China. Due to the recovery of production in Southeast Asia and the increase of labor and operation costs in China, most orders return to Southeast Asian countries. The poor performance of foreign trade will become an important factor affecting the market. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 66.66% (+ 2.61pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.50 (+ 0.30) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market opens high and goes low. The oil price soared, and the disk of relevant futures rose all the way during the day. Short fiber enterprises raised their quotations one after another, and the transaction moved up sharply, but the downstream had strong resistance to the supply of high price goods. Then the oil price continued to rise, but the sluggish terminal demand dragged down the cost market. In the late part of the week, the oil price rose again, and the cash flow of short fiber enterprises was significantly compressed recently. Enterprises were expected to save more and reduce production. Under the cost pressure and tight supply, the quotation of short fiber enterprises remained stable and the transaction width moved up. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 822857 (+ 466.19) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is -1.79 (- 106.57) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 1.50 (+ 1.00) days, and the operating rate is 86.10% (+ 0.30pct).
Polyester bottle chip: the market fluctuated and rose. On the supply side, at present, the construction of enterprises is basically stable. A 200000 ton small line in East China was restarted this week, and the market supply increased. On the demand side, at present, the start-up of most end beverage sheet enterprises has returned to the normal level, but the start-up of some sheet enterprises is still low due to the lack of order support. As the supply of some large end beverage manufacturers has been locked in advance in the fourth quarter of last year, and the recent sharp rise in the crude oil market, the high price of bottles and chips fluctuates, the downstream is more resistant to the high price supply, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 865714 (+ 596.43) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 415.40 (- 20.13) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 93.70% (+ 0.90pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to March 11, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 126.05%, petroleum and petrochemical industry index increased by 1.50%, and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index increased by 11.99%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
