Core view
Two week performance of the sector: in the past two weeks (202202.28202203.11), CSI 300 fell by 5.84%, gem index fell by 6.67%, and consumer service (CITIC) index fell by 8.31%. Compared with CSI 300, the relative income was – 2.47%, ranking 26th among CITIC’s 29 sub industries. Among the molecular sectors, the tourism and leisure sector fell by 8.72% in the past two weeks, the hotel and catering sector fell by 6.75%, the education sector fell by 8.84% in the past two weeks, and the comprehensive service sector fell by 4.96% in the past two weeks.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest share price increase in the past two weeks are China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) / Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) / Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) / Xi’An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) / Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) ; The five stocks with high average turnover rate are China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) / Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) / Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) / Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) / Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) ; The five stocks with high trading volume are China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) / Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) / Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) / Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) / Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) .
Industry highlights: (1) in 2021, the total number of global tourists reached 6.6 billion. (2) National Development and Reform Commission: vigorously develop ice and snow tourism and promote the implementation of the action plan for the development of ice and snow tourism. (3) Five departments issue the list of duty-free imported popular science products during the 14th Five Year Plan period (the first batch)
Important announcement of A-share social service listed companies: 1) Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : the announcement of 21 year performance express showed that the company achieved a revenue of 6.153 billion yuan, an increase of 16.49% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 556769 million yuan, an increase of 552 million yuan over the same period last year. 2) China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : from January to February of 22, the operating revenue was about 13.1 billion yuan, an increase of 20% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% at the same time. 3) Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) : according to the announcement of the performance express in the 21st year, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 549 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.46%.
Investment proposal and investment object
In the past two weeks, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country has rebounded on a large scale, and the number of newly confirmed local cases has reached a new high since March 20. The joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a teleconference on the 12th, adhered to the general strategy of “external prevention input and internal prevention rebound” and the general policy of “dynamic zeroing”, and took decisive measures to control the local epidemic situation as soon as possible, Firmly hold the bottom line of no large-scale rebound of the epidemic; At the same time, the monitoring mode of “antigen screening and nucleic acid diagnosis” is popularized, and the masses can purchase the detection by themselves, which is conducive to early detection and improve the sensitivity of monitoring and early warning. From the perspective of the current anti epidemic situation, we think that the main adjustment is the adjustment of the anti epidemic situation between the anti epidemic policy and the anti epidemic policy in the short term.
Tax exemption: according to the business data released from January to February 2022, the company’s net profit margin to parent was 18.3% higher than expected, which was the same as that from January to February of the same period last year, but higher than 15.7% of 21q1. It also improved significantly month on month, mainly due to: 1) the contraction of discount; 2) The improvement of sales structure brought by the recovery of passenger flow, the proportion of offline high-quality products increased, and the proportion of online products with low gross profit margin decreased significantly month on month and was lower than 21q1; 3) The income tax of Hainan Province is preferential, and the tax rate is reduced from 25% in the same period last year to 15%. In the short term, the epidemic situation in China and Sanya has a great impact on the passenger flow in Hainan, but Haitangwan store has resumed business on March 8, and the net interest rate from January to February has recovered more than expected. On the one hand, it proves that the previous fluctuation of profitability is mainly affected by the epidemic situation and has no worries in the long term; On the other hand, it also reflects the company’s determination and determination to ensure profits this year. We once again emphasize the bottom allocation opportunity of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , overweight) caused by short-term epidemic, and suggest to actively grasp it.
Hotels and scenic spots: the impact of this round of epidemic on Residents’ travel may be greater than the previous rebound. It is suggested to pay attention to the post callback allocation opportunities of Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , buy), Huazhu group-s (01179, not rated), Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , buy), and China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ( China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , buy).
Catering: due to the large-scale repeated impact of the epidemic in the past two weeks, the recovery trend of catering from January to February has been interrupted and the uncertainty of the interim report has increased, but the Growth Logic of high-quality brands in the medium term has not changed. It is suggested to pay attention to the low position, choose the opportunity and layout, and operate the leading enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Helen (09869, not rated) and jiumaojiu (09922, not rated).
Risk tips
Systemic risks, sudden factors, individual stock mergers and acquisitions do not meet expectations, etc
