Key investment points:
In February, the lithium battery sector index was significantly stronger than the CSI 300 index. In February 2022, the lithium battery index rose by 6.09% and the new energy vehicle index rose by 3.32%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.13% in the same period. The lithium battery index was significantly stronger than the CSI 300 index.
In mid February, the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars continued to double. In January 2022, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile sold 334000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 204%, a decrease of 22.5% compared with January, and the monthly sales volume accounted for 19.23% in February. The sales volume continued to hit a new high in the same period. The growth was mainly related to the introduction of stable growth policies by local governments, the significant improvement of consumer recognition and the alleviation of core shortage. In January 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity was 16.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 86.9%, of which ternary materials accounted for 45.1% Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and zhongchuangxin ranked among the top three.
Upstream raw material prices mainly rose. As of March 11, 2022, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 517000 yuan / ton, up 36.05% from the beginning of February, and it is expected to be dominated by high volatility in the short term; The price of lithium hydroxide was 481900 yuan / ton, up 57.02% from the beginning of February. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The price of electrolytic cobalt was 566500 yuan / ton, up 11.74% from the beginning of February, with a short-term overall high shock; The price of lithium cobalt acid increased by 135800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The price of Sanyuan 523 cathode material was 372000 yuan / ton, up 20.0% from the beginning of February; The price of lithium iron phosphate is 145000 yuan / ton, up 25.65% from the beginning of February. It is expected to be dominated by high shocks in the short term. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 535000 yuan / ton, down 4.46% from the beginning of February. It is expected to be high and under pressure in the short term; The electrolyte was 115000 yuan / ton, down 4.17% from the beginning of February. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level and be under pressure.
Maintain the investment rating of “stronger than the market” in the industry. As of March 11, 2022: the valuation of lithium battery and gem were 59.61 times and 41.81 times respectively. Combined with the development prospect of the industry, the rating of “stronger than the big market” of the industry was maintained. In February, the lithium battery sector was generally stronger than the main indexes, mainly due to the full correction in the early stage and the decline in the valuation of the sector, and the valuation of some high-quality targets was reasonable. Combined with the industry dynamics outside China, the price trend of subdivided fields, monthly sales volume and industry development trend, the industry boom continues to rise on the whole. Combined with the great uncertainty outside the market, the current industry valuation level and the performance expectation of individual stocks in the recent sector, the short-term sector should be cautious and not optimistic. If the main index stabilizes, the sector should pay attention to the rebound. In the medium and long term, the development prospect of new energy vehicle industry outside China is determined, and the sector deserves special attention. At the same time, it is expected that the performance and trend of individual stocks will also be differentiated. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of leaders in subdivided fields.
Risk warning: the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected; The prices in the subdivided fields fluctuate sharply; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies; The progress of lithium extraction from Salt Lake exceeded expectations; Systemic risk.
