Report guide
Baijiu sector: Baijiu sector is a pre fall “basically good trend has not changed, the main emotional disturbance”, in the 22Q1 sector performance increased certainty and will soon cash in the background (this week, wine enterprises have announced the expected 1-2 month business bulletin), the sector valuation has also been cost-effective (40X), for strong rebound potential can be layout sector. Positive layout is recommended. It is recommended that the performance of 22q1 is strong, the certainty is high, the annual marginal change performance is good and the current valuation is cost-effective: [ Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ], [ Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ], [ Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ], [ Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) ], [ Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) ].
Popular goods sector: previously, the market’s view on the popular goods sector was that in 2022, the superposition of cost inflection points and the effect of price increase + improved demand, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price brought the overall opportunity of the sector. However, at present, we believe that this logic cannot be fully realized due to changes in the external environment. At the current time point, under the background of slow demand recovery, mandatory is better than optional; At the same time, on the premise of macroeconomic stagflation expectation, the white horse leader in dairy products sector is the first: [ Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ]; At the same time, pay attention to [Mengniu Dairy] and [ Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ]. In the follow-up, we should pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by multi factor changes and improvements.
March 7th ~3 11, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22%, the food and beverage sector fell 2.06%, Baijiu sector fell less than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 0.64%. Specifically, the increase of Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) (+ 33.83%) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (+ 8.43%) in the beverage sector this week was relatively large, and the decrease of He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) (- 8.76%) and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (- 8.73%) in the beverage sector was relatively large; This week, the increase of Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 12.80%) and Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (+ 11.51%) in the food sector was relatively the top, while the increase of Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (- 13.88%) and Sirio Pharma Co.Ltd(300791) (- 13.87%) in the food sector were relatively the bottom.
This week’s view
[Baijiu sector]: 22Q1 has a high growth and strong certainty, and the current valuation is cost-effective.
Plate review: Baijiu 1-2 month business data intensive release for this week sector catalyst March 7th ~3 11, 5 trading days, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22%, food and beverage sector fell 2.06%, liquor sector fell less than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 0.64%. Baijiu sector specific, Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) (+33.83%), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (+8.43%), Tian You De wine (+8.84%), Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) (+5.08%) and other small wine rise in the top. More than 1-2 high-end performance and high-end wine were announced in the week, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) exceeded market expectations. The quality of white label is strong and high. The Baijiu sector is in the early stage of decline. The trend is basically good, but the main trend is baijiu. Under the background that the performance of the 22q1 sector has increased with certainty and is about to be realized, the valuation of the sector has also been cost-effective (40x), which is a configurable sector with “strong rebound potential”, so it is recommended to actively layout.
Sorting out the performance of Liquor Enterprises: which liquor enterprises have released the performance express of 21 years & the operation data from January to February of 22 years? Recent wine companies have been releasing the 2021 annual performance express for 2021 in the coming years, and wine companies have been releasing the data for the first two months of 2022. The data from the first two months of the year in 2022. According to what has been released, the 2021 annual performance express for 2021 will be released in succession, and the coming of the year in the coming year in the coming years. The coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the year in the coming of the year of 2021 in the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the year of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the coming of the year of the coming of the coming of the 2021 year: thefor Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) 0051 Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) 00519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) of the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) of the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) of the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) \ performance meets expectations and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) revenue exceeds expectations; Operation from January to February 2022: Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) performance basically met expectations, and the performance of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , tianyoude liquor exceeded expectations.
Overall——
1) high end liquor: the overall performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, and the steady development trend will continue in 2022, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is expected to achieve higher than expected development under the operation reform, and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) profit elasticity is expected;
2) sub high-end liquor: the differentiation has increased, among which Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) are still the liquor enterprises with the highest performance growth rate in 22q1-22, while Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) will continue to achieve the growth rate of high quality exceeding 30%;
3) regional liquor: under the background of intensified internal differentiation, it is expected that the expansion speed of regional liquor will be higher than that of national sub high-end liquor in 2022. Under the background of gradual implementation of equity incentive for regional liquor, it is expected that regional liquor will usher in higher growth than expected and have great performance flexibility.
Specifically——
, ;
1) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (in line with expectations) – 21 years of steady ending, 22 years of value distribution performance: it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 23.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.0%; 21q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 16.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.4%. Brief comment: the growth rate of 21q4 revenue was flat month on month, mainly due to the high base of last year and the operation of some core markets affected by the epidemic. It is expected that the advance collection at the statement end in 21 years will have a good performance, or accumulate strength for the development in 22 years. For the whole year of 21 years, considering the delivery of transit warehouse and other goods during the year, the actual demand growth rate of the whole year is faster than that of the report end, benefiting from the expansion of the price band of 1000 yuan, and the volume and price continue to maintain a good development trend. At present, the large ship is setting sail with heavy sail, and the marginal change may be significant under the underestimated value.
2) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (in line with expectations) – the performance is in line with expectations and the potential energy of Guojiao is released
Performance: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 20.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.70%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 7.751 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.38%; 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 6.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.21%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.474 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.36%.
The performance is in line with expectations.
Brief comment: the overall performance of the company in 2021 is in line with expectations, and the profit margin is further upward. From 2017 to 2020, the company’s profit margins were 25%, 27%, 29%, 36% and 39% respectively, benefiting from the continuous release of the potential energy of the high national cellar 1573, the simultaneous rise of volume and price + the accelerated development of low alcohol liquor with 40% of the revenue in the national cellar in North China + the steady development of medium-grade liquor. In 2021, the company’s ton price moved steadily and the profit margin maintained a steady growth year after year. Specifically: 1) product side: Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) price band layout is relatively uniform (the launch of sub high-end new product Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952 further improves the product matrix), high-end liquor enjoys the expansion bonus, is expected to maintain double-digit growth and further increase the proportion of revenue; Positive adjustment of mid-range products (21h1 volume control and price support, 21h2 appropriate volume); Accelerated upgrading of low-end liquor product structure (Dacheng Luzhou flavor company was established in April to operate low-end liquor); 2) Market side: breakthroughs in the three strategic markets of central China, East China and South China. The Spring Festival has made a good start: the performance of dynamic sales & payment collection is positive, and the price increase may increase the performance; 22 year Outlook: with the simultaneous rise of volume and price and the acceleration of nationalization, the net interest rate is expected to continue to improve.
3) Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (the revenue is higher than expected, and the profit is slightly lower than expected) – 21 years of energy accumulation and ending, 22 years of sailing performance: the company achieved an operating revenue of 13.271 billion yuan (+ 28.95%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.291 billion yuan (+ 23.54%); Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.201 billion (+ 24.14%); 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 3.169 billion yuan (+ 42.58%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 322 million yuan (+ 1.66%); Deduct 299 million yuan (+ 10.06%) of net profit not attributable to parent company.
Brief comment: the revenue growth rate of 21q4 increased significantly month on month, and the net profit margin was lower than expected. The main reason was that the company accrued part of the expenses (part of which were one-time) to 21q4, with a higher structure of superimposed advance receipts, which accumulated strength for 22-year development; Throughout the year, it is expected that the revenue of gu16 and above will nearly double in 21 years, gu8 will achieve steady growth, Mingguang’s performance will slightly exceed expectations, Huanghelou will complete the promised revenue, the potential energy of high-priced wine will be released, driving the product structure to move up steadily, and the company will end in 21 years.
II. Liquor enterprises that have released the performance express for 21 years & the operation data from January to February: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (this week), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (this week), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (this week), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (this week), tianyoude liquor (this week)
1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (exceeding expectations) – exceeding market expectations, optimistic about marketing reform and exceeding expected performance: during the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales momentum of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) products is good, the market shows a strong sales trend, and the “good start” is realized smoothly. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year.
Brief comment: from January to February, the business data increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of non-standard and direct channels, which contributed to profits.
1. Improvement of Maotai’s product structure: the price increase / structure improvement of non-standard & series liquor products has significantly contributed to the performance.
1) the price increase superposition structure of non-standard products is improved: the price of high-quality products in January and 15 years in the year is increased. At the same time, some distribution quotas of non-standard products are transferred to direct stores to further increase the price, so as to realize the thickening of profits; 2) Price increase of series wine: in January 2022, the company raised the price of six single products such as golden prince, Maotai classic and Han sauce by 10-15%, and the main products were comprehensively increased to more than 200 yuan; 3) New product release / early launch of Chinese Zodiac wine. The company released 1935 new products (the shipment volume from January to February may be Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) t, which is estimated to contribute more than 1 billion revenue, and the annual volume may increase to 25 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) tons); Release new products and treasures; Chinese Zodiac wine was released earlier than last year; Dealers can implement unplanned quotas for non-standard products.
2. The proportion of direct channels has increased significantly. In February 1935, the second batch of products have been put into series liquor dealers and self operated stores, and the proportion of direct sales channels is expected to exceed 17.5% in the same period last year. Overall: from January to February, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) still showed a tight balance between supply and demand, and the wholesale prices of Sanmao and Xiangmao were stable at about 27502900 yuan / 31003300 yuan respectively; The 1935 price of new products has gradually dropped from 1800 yuan just listed to about 1600 yuan. The market feedback is positive. It is expected that the subsequent volume will lay the foundation for the steady growth of annual performance. In the short term: Maotai liquor series is driven by two wheels, and a series of measures taken by new leaders will be implemented; In the medium and long term: entering the 14th five year plan, take the road of Maotai and the “five line” development road.
2) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (exceeding expectations) – a good start to better than expected performance, and it is expected to increase significantly throughout the year
Performance: after preliminary accounting, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 1.4 billion yuan (+ 120%) from January to February 2022; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 465 million yuan (+ 130%), and the profit performance is higher than expected. Brief comment: compared with previous years, the company’s earlier account closing + slight control of goods + fast progress of payment collection for a good start + rapid development outside the province + steady upgrading of structure laid the foundation for Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) a better start than expected; In addition, the company focused on payment collection and inventory digestion in January and price channel maintenance from February to March. During the Spring Festival, the price of products was stable (the rated price of domestic ginseng and laohongtan was about 820 / 295 yuan respectively) and the inventory was healthy. In the next 22 years, ginseng is expected to continue its high growth trend and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series will develop steadily.
3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (beyond expectation) – excellent performance in Spring Festival, with high growth of blue and white flowers leading the upgrading
Performance: in 2022, the company arranged the Spring Festival peak season ahead of schedule, with good dynamic sales in the overall market. Medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series achieved substantial growth, and the operating revenue and net profit reached the best level in history. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%. Brief comment: from January to February 2022, the company’s high performance was mainly due to structural upgrading and strong development outside the province. Considering that the payment time of Fenjiu in the Spring Festival this year is slightly later and there are no high requirements for the payment progress, we expect that the early high growth trend will continue in March 22. Specifically:
1) during the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales are booming, and the high growth of Qinghua leads the improvement of product structure: during the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales of Qinghua series are booming. It is expected that the growth rate of Q1 qinghuafen will exceed 60%, and that of laobaifen will exceed 50%. Under the volume control measures of Bofen, it is similar to that of the same period last year. Among them, the growth rate of blue and white 30 revival edition leads the whole series of products. Under the background of large-scale Spring Festival, the price sector of blue and white series is strong and the inventory is benign, and the rated price of blue and white 20 and 30 revival edition is still maintained at about 380 / 860 yuan.
2) rapid development outside the province and steady improvement of controllable terminals: in 2021, the Fen Liquor Market with 100 million yuan increased to 22, and the sales of Zhuyeqing liquor in the southern core market increased by more than 120% year-on-year; The number of dealers outside the province increased by 30.5% year-on-year, and the number of controllable terminals increased to 1.05 million.
In 2022, the company will continue to refine and deeply cultivate the sector around Shanxi, and continue to focus on developing the market south of the Yangtze River.
4) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (in line with expectations): the performance is in line with expectations and has a successful start
Performance: during the Spring Festival in 2022, the company’s product sales increased well and achieved a “good start”. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 940 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 26%.
Brief comment: from January to February, the company’s performance met expectations, and V9 maintained a rapid growth trend. During the Spring Festival, the company’s dynamic sales performance is excellent. According to the products: 1) V Series: the growth of V series doubled in 21 years. Under the outbreak of 22q1 gift demand, V9 contribution is expected to increase significantly. V3 is still in the period of market adjustment, and it is expected to release profits after the price is stable.
2) Guoyuan series: the growth rate of Sikai in 21 years may exceed 35%, and the return rate of 22q1 is significantly increased. The growth rate of medium and high-end products such as folio and Danya Guoyuan may exceed Sikai. Driven by the brand power of V series and Sikai, Danya Guoyuan has become the third largest single product of the company. 3) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) series: Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) activation war continues, and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) secondary high-end strategic new products D20 & d30 increased by 235% in the first three quarters of 21 years. At present, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) series remains stable
