Market Review
The auto sector fell 4.75%, the CSI 300 index fell 4.22% in the same period, and the auto industry fell 0.53 percentage points behind the CSI 300 index. From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 19th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, at the midstream level compared with other industries. The new energy vehicle index fell 4.68%. Among the sub sectors, the rise and fall of passenger vehicles / commercial trucks / commercial buses / auto parts / auto services this week were – 4.20% / – 6.39% / – 4.95% / – 5.16% / – 3.73% respectively.
Market hot spot
The sales volume in February was in line with expectations, and the penetration rate of new energy was nearly 22%, breaking the history. In February, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 1.487 million, with a month on month ratio of + 28% / – 32% respectively. The sales volume in February was in line with the expectation. Due to the Spring Festival holiday and the natural fewer days in February, compared with the loss of nearly 10 days in January, the sales volume in February fell by about 40% month on month in history. Therefore, the month on month decline in February in 22 was in line with the expectation and better than the historical average. In February, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 321000, with the same / month on month ratio of 182.2% / – 23.4% respectively, and the penetration rate reached a record high of 21.6%. The negative impact of the price rise of new energy vehicles was limited, and the new energy vehicle market continued its ultra-high boom in February. From the perspective of enterprises, five new energy wholesale sales exceeded 10000 in February, Byd Company Limited(002594) / Tesla China / SAIC GM Wuling / Geely / Chery sales were 87473 / 56515 / 26046 / 14285 / 10271 respectively, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) and Tesla performed well, Byd Company Limited(002594) February sales were only – 5.9% month on month, and Tesla Shanghai factory sales were only – 5.6% month on month. Among the new forces, the sales volume of ideal / Nezha / Xiaopeng / Weilai / Zero run is 8414 / 7117 / 6225 / 6131 / 3435 respectively. Among the joint venture brands, the wholesale sales volume of North South Volkswagen new energy vehicles was 11916, with a month on month ratio of – 12.8%, accounting for 58% of the mainstream joint venture.
This week’s view: full response to pessimistic expectations and focus on structural allocation opportunities
The market has more concerns about the industry demand, the automobile supply chain crisis under the Russian Ukrainian war and the rapid rise of bulk + energy prices. Multiple pessimistic expectations have been released intensively in the past two weeks, resulting in more callback of the automobile sector, especially the individual stocks with overseas production capacity and large export exposure. Overall, we believe that the current situation can be referred to 21q3. The short-term expectation of the sector has hit the bottom, and the valuation has been lower than the median in recent two years and close to the median level in recent five years. It has fully reflected the downward expectation of the short-term fundamentals of the sector. The short-term pressure does not change the medium and long-term trend. The rise of domestic products and electric intelligence will still be the most definite investment main line, and we pay attention to structural allocation opportunities. At the current stage, it is suggested to select Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , the leader in the subdivided field with both growth and certainty, the high-quality target with good performance toughness of decoupling sales China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) , the target of Tesla supply chain with strong certainty Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) and Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , the independent brand supply chain and Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) . The medium-term dimension continues to be optimistic about the rise of domestic production and electric intelligence, focusing on four sub areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats, providing better opportunities for callback.
Investment strategy and key recommendations
Under the background of chip shortage in 2021, the sales volume is under pressure, the industry inventory is at a historical low, the replenishment cycle + demand recovery, and the growth rate of passenger car sales in 2022 is expected to be 5-8%. In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine manufacturers, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The model iteration speed in the era of electric intelligence will accelerate, which will greatly improve the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The fixed zero adjustment relationship in the past is expected to be broken, and the domestic parts industry chain will rise with the trend, At the same time, the acceleration of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends. We are optimistic about the rise of domestic and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four sub areas: integrated die casting, driving intelligence, cockpit intelligence and localization of passenger car seats.
Passenger cars: recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile (H), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai.
Parts and components of the ”s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) quantification & Tesla supply chain), Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) (Tesla industrial chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), etc, Focus on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
Chip supply is lower than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
