Report guide
On March 11, 2022, the covid-19 virus antigen detection application scheme (Trial) was released. The scheme pointed out that if community residents have covid-19 self-test needs, they can purchase antigen detection reagents for rapid detection through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels, causing changes in the stock price of chain drug stores.
Key investment points
Event: the antigen self-test was started, and the stock price of chain drugstores changed. On March 11, 2022, the covid-19 virus antigen detection application scheme (Trial) was released. The scheme pointed out that if community residents have covid-19 self-test needs, they can purchase antigen detection reagents for rapid detection through retail drugstores, online sales platforms and other channels, Triggered stock price changes in the chain drugstore sector, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) all rose sharply this week.
Chain drugstores: the margin is upward, which is beneficial to the improvement of passenger flow
The epidemic broke out in various places, and the demand for self-test may be normalized
Referring to the response measures of overseas epidemic, we believe that the demand for self-test will increase with the severity of the epidemic. Omicron virus is more infectious, new cases in many places continue to grow, nucleic acid testing is highly specialized, the testing time is long, and more medical resources are needed. With the point spread of the epidemic and the normalization of medical resources, we believe that self-test early screening + nucleic acid diagnosis may become an important means of covid-19 testing, and the demand for self-test will be further improved.
Major pharmacies actively layout, and new products may increase the passenger flow
After the release of covid-19 virus antigen detection application scheme (Trial), major pharmacies have actively arranged. In March 12, 2022, the Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) pharmacy group claimed that Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) and Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) had reached a partnership. The first batch of products will be landing in 12 stores in Shanghai, Hunan and Jiangsu provinces; official account. Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) and other drugstore leaders have also begun to layout. We believe that the new antigen detection products will help to increase the customer flow of chain drugstores and expand the customer group of chain drugstores from middle-aged and elderly people, Baoma and other home-based people to community people who need covid-19 self-test, which will help to increase the customer flow and promote the improvement of sales.
The product structure continues to be adjusted, and the long-term logic is still the improvement of concentration
In order to cope with the rise of Internet drug sales, the product structure of chain drugstores has been continuously adjusted, and gradually explored in the direction of medical beauty, store in store and private brand. We believe that if the product structure adjustment brought by covid-19 can be continuously promoted by policies, it may become one of the opportunities for the customer structure transformation of chain drugstores, but we also believe that, There are still great uncertainties in the volume and price of self-test sales and the recognition of policies. From the long-term logic of chain drugstores, as we pointed out in the report “depth of chain drugstore industry: in-depth thinking under the comparison between China, the United States and Japan”, we believe that the improvement of concentration is still the core trend of chain drugstores.
Investment advice
We recommend leading chain drugstore enterprises that pay attention to extensive layout, such as Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Shuyu Civilian Pharmacy Corp.Ltd(301017) , etc.
Risk tips
Risk of new product sales falling short of expectations; The risk that the market opening is lower than expected; Risk of product quality falling short of expectations; The risk of increased competition.
