Industry perspective
Covid-19 antigen detection has landed in China, or the prosperity of upstream and downstream industries has improved. In March 11th, the State Council issued the notice on the issuance of the COVID-19 virus antigen detection application plan (Trial Implementation) to the comprehensive group of New Coronavirus pneumonia epidemic prevention and control mechanism, in order to further optimize the COVID-19 virus detection strategy and to serve the epidemic prevention and control needs. The State Council should respond to the joint prevention and control mechanism of New Coronavirus pneumonia and decide to add antigen tests on the basis of nucleic acid detection. We believe that the notice stimulates the strong demand of covid-19 antigen testing industry, which has many manufacturers. However, as of March 13, five products have obtained covid-19 antigen testing nmpa registration certificate, and the priority certified enterprises will take the lead in benefiting; In addition, the prosperity of the upstream may increase due to the increase of demand.
China is an important global exporter of covid-19 antigen testing products. China is an important producer of covid-19 antigen testing, and many enterprises have obtained CE, FDA, TGA and other relevant certifications. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, the total export volume of covid-19 antigen detection products in China in 2021 exceeded 70 billion yuan.
As an important terminal channel, pharmacies may usher in a wide range of incremental opportunities. According to the notice of the Health Commission, community residents who need self-test can purchase antigen test reagents for self-test through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels. With covid-19 antigen detection clearly as a supplementary detection means, the anti epidemic terminal value of chain pharmacies is expected to be gradually reflected, and the stores may usher in a new increase in revenue. Antigen detection is convenient and low-cost, which is expected to become a daily demand product; On the other hand, the sales of antigen detection products are expected to boost passenger flow and drive the sales of related products. As the situation of epidemic prevention and control tends to stabilize, the sales of respiratory drugs and anti infective drugs in pharmacies may gradually resume. In addition, if the number of covid-19 therapeutic drugs approved in China increases in the future, the sales of anti epidemic drugs in pharmacies are expected to gradually increase.
Detect the normalization trend of OTC with high certainty, and the consumer oriented (TOC) sales system may become the core competitiveness. If the antigen test is sold through OTC channels in the future, there are high requirements for the manufacturer’s TOC terminal sales system. At present, most of the antigen manufacturers’ channels focus on the hospital end, and the experience of C end is relatively small. Therefore, enterprises with both certification ability and channel ability may have great potential; Household medical device products have consumption attributes, and the future development of the sector is highly uncertain. Driven by the local epidemic, the attention of household medical devices may also increase.
Investment advice
We believe that the rapid promotion of covid-19 antigen detection in China is expected to improve the overall prosperity of the industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of leading enterprises in antigen detection and the first certified enterprises; At the same time, the demand elasticity of upstream supply chain and downstream sales channels (such as pharmacies) is also worth grasping.
Key companies: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , etc.
Risk tips
The recovery of diagnosis and treatment demand is less than expected; The intensity of centralized purchase and negotiation exceeded expectations; The supply of anti epidemic materials increased and the quantity and Price Bureau deteriorated; R & D and new product launch were less than expected.
