Market review:
Last week, the basic chemical industry index fell 3.34%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22% in the same period, and the basic chemical industry index outperformed the market by 0.88 percentage points in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index fell 6.46%, underperforming the market by 2.24 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) (60.96%), Zhejiang Dayang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(003017) (29.63%), Elion Clean Energy Company Limited(600277) (20.66%), Guangdong Rongtai Industry Co.Ltd(600589) (15.52%), Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) (14.25%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) (- 17.96%), ORF environmental protection (- 17.03%), Sanxiang Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(603663) (- 16.75%), Guizhou Redstar Developing Co.Ltd(600367) (- 15.69%), Shanghai Yongguan Adhesive Products Corp.Ltd(603681) (- 15.05%).
International crude oil: last week, international crude oil prices rose and fell. In the early part of the week, the United States and the European Union stepped up sanctions against Russia, which raised concerns about the obstruction of Russian energy exports and the interruption of global crude oil supply. At the same time, there was a risk of delaying the release time of Iran’s crude oil production capacity, and the crude oil price once exceeded the $130 mark. In the late part of the week, the UAE called on OPEC + to increase production, and the IEA also said it would release crude oil reserves. At the same time, Ukraine and Russia also released a signal of intention to negotiate peace, and the crude oil price fell significantly. As of March 11, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil were US $109.33/barrel and US $112.67/barrel respectively, down 5.49% and 4.61% month on month (MOM) on the 7th. At present, the EU will continue to increase the intensity of sanctions on Russia’s crude oil stocks and accelerate the global demand for crude oil. At present, the international geopolitical situation is not clear. It is expected that the international crude oil price will remain high and volatile in the short term.
Potash fertilizer: on March 10, Russian Minister of industry manturov publicly said that Russia would suspend the export of chemical fertilizer. As a major fertilizer exporter in the world, Russia’s fertilizer products led by potassium fertilizer are mainly exported to Europe, Asia and Latin America. Russia’s announcement to suspend the export of chemical fertilizer may cause a global shortage of potassium fertilizer, which will lead to the price of potassium fertilizer and crops rising again. At present, China is in the spring farming season, and the demand for potassium fertilizer is relatively strong. The shortage of potassium fertilizer supply will strongly support its price. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, as of March 11, the price of potassium chloride in China has been raised to 4300 yuan / ton, up 9.41% month on month on the 7th and 23.74% compared with the beginning of the year. On the supply side, at present, the main potash fertilizer manufacturers in China are basically in normal production status. However, due to the low inventory and the tight spot in the market, the manufacturers are willing to support the price. While the acceptance of high priced potash fertilizer in the downstream is general, and the actual transaction of new orders is slightly weak. It is expected that potash fertilizer will remain at a high level in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant leading enterprises.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments that rely on new energy and seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen their business cycle and improve valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the risk of continuous fluctuation of international crude oil price, the risk of repeated impact of epidemic situation in some parts of China on enterprise operation, and the risk of sharp fluctuation of chemical product price.
