The sales volume rebounded slightly in February, and the penetration rate continued to advance. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe is mainly determined by the sales volume of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and the three leading new energy vehicle penetration markets, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands. From the sales volume in February 2022, except Norway, countries showed different year-on-year growth. In terms of permeability, the permeability of major countries continued to increase in February 2022. According to the existing sales volume of seven major car markets in February, combined with the sales volume of major car markets, it accounts for about 78% of the overall new energy vehicle market in Europe. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe in February 2022 will be nearly 202600, with a year-on-year increase of 30%. In the future, it is expected that the number of passenger cars in Europe will increase steadily on the basis of 15 million. Combined with the continuous upward penetration of new energy vehicles, it is expected that there will be 7 million cars in 2025, the CAGR will reach 32% in four years, and the penetration of new energy will exceed 50% in 2025.
Policies lay the foundation for high growth, and automobile enterprises lead the general direction. The backwardness of carbon emission policy is the fundamental reason for the growth of new energy vehicles in Europe. As early as October last year, we had warned before the market that if the part of road transportation is decomposed according to the 2030 climate target plan, the reduction of carbon emission in 2030 may be increased to 55-60%. At present, the European Commission has officially proposed to increase the reduction of carbon emission in 2030 to 55%, It is planned to completely end the era of internal combustion engine in 2035. The current bill will be negotiated between Member States and the European Parliament in the coming months. If the bill is passed, based on this bill, the penetration rate of pure electric new energy vehicles in Europe will only be 10.59% in 2021, while in 2025 / 2030 / 2035, the penetration rate of pure electric new energy vehicles in Europe is expected to reach 35% / 65% / 100%; Since Europe set the carbon emission target, Europe’s penetration rate has been experiencing a leap since 2020. It has been continuously jumping in the fourth quarter of 2021. Q1-Q4 achieved the penetration rate of new energy vehicles by 14.77% / 16.87% / 20.40% / 39.35% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.27pcs/8.47pcs/9.7pcs/18.95pcs respectively. At the same time, car companies led by Tesla and Ford and China’s lithium battery industry chain are building their own production capacity planning and factories in Europe. In the future, the number and sales of new energy vehicles in Europe will enter a period of rapid growth, and the pattern of competition will accelerate, providing a solid guarantee for the long-term and rapid development of electrification in Europe. The global new energy vehicle market is gradually forming a stable supply system of “vehicle enterprises – batteries – materials – resources”. With the sudden emergence of the new energy vehicle market led by Europe, battery material manufacturers with global competitiveness in China’s lithium battery industry chain will continue to benefit.
Investment suggestions: 1) the long-term competition pattern is better and there are marginal changes in the short term. Key recommendations: A. battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ; b. Diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; c. Thermal management: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ; d. High voltage DC: Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) ; e. Thin film capacitance: Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , it is recommended to pay attention to Xi’An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) etc. 2) 4680 technology iteration, driving the upgrading of the industrial chain. 4680 can achieve 210wh / kg at present. If high nickel 91 series and silicon carbon negative electrode are used in the subsequent system, the energy density of the system may be close to 270wh / kg, which can greatly solve the problem of heat management of high nickel series. Key points: A. large cylindrical shell: Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) ; b. High nickel positive electrode: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ; c. Layout lifsi: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) . 3) Look at the high boom industrial chain with tight supply and demand in 2-3 years. Focus on: A. diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; b. Copper foil: Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Far East Smarter Energy Co.Ltd(600869) ; c. Negative pole: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , beiteri, Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) the sales volume of new models is lower than expected. 2) The price of raw materials fluctuates. 3) Capacity expansion and product development were less than expected.
