Comments on consumer service industry: covid-19 antigen detection application scheme is issued, and China's anti epidemic is expected to enter a new stage

The State Council has issued the application scheme for covid-19 antigen detection, and residents can purchase reagents for self detection.

In March 11th, the State Council issued the "COVID-19 virus antigen detection application plan" for the comprehensive prevention and control mechanism of New Coronavirus pneumonia. The document mentioned that if community residents have self-test needs, they can purchase antigen detection reagents for self-test through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels.

For the strong transmission of Omicron virus strain, antigen detection is more suitable for wide promotion.

At present, local outbreaks have occurred in many provinces and cities in the mainland. From March 7 to 12, 95 / 199 / 287 / 1954 cases were confirmed locally in Beijing / Shanghai / Shenzhen / Jilin respectively, and most of the new cases were Omicron variant strains. Multipoint communication makes it more difficult to conduct flow investigation, prevention and control and detection, and the crowd gathered to participate in detection and investigation further increases the risk of communication. The self-test of antigen reagents purchased by community residents is conducive to completing the screening more safely and quickly. The plan instructs grass-roots medical and health institutions to conduct nucleic acid testing first when receiving people with respiratory tract, fever and other symptoms within 5 days; Antigen detection shall be carried out for those who do not have the ability of nucleic acid detection. For the persons with positive antigen test, the grass-roots medical and health institutions shall immediately report to the disease control department under their jurisdiction, and the emergency center shall transfer the persons with positive antigen to the medical institutions with fever clinics for nucleic acid test in accordance with the covid-19 guidelines for the transfer of persons related to the pneumonia epidemic, It can be seen that the promotion of antigen detection can not only make the medical institutions with limited hardware equipment play a role as much as possible, but also make the epidemic control more efficient and accurate, minimize the impact on the daily production and life of the society, and help promote the epidemic prevention and control and help the recovery of offline consumption.

Local anti epidemic plans responded quickly, and joint prevention and control were carried out to curb the spread of the epidemic.

The number of newly confirmed cases in China has increased significantly since February 19. All localities have responded quickly to curb the spread of the epidemic through joint prevention and control; At present, the overall situation of the epidemic in China has basically remained stable. The dynamic clearing system still plays an important role in timely control, tracing the source and blocking further community transmission, so as to strive for time and space for the dynamic adjustment of the epidemic prevention system.

Take multiple measures at the same time, adjust dynamically, or explore a new path of anti epidemic under the new situation of epidemic situation.

On March 10, according to the latest data released in the UK, the mortality rate of covid-19 epidemic before the epidemic of Omicron virus was about 0.2%, but after Omicron became the main transmission strain, the current mortality rate is about 0.035%, which is at the same level as that of influenza. At present, many countries are exploring the liberalization of epidemic control according to their specific situation. As of February 25, 2022, the proportion of covid-19 vaccine in China has reached 85.48%. At present, although the vaccine can not completely block the transmission of Omicron virus, it can greatly reduce the critical disease rate caused by Omicron epidemic. At present, there are only 8 critical disease cases in China, which also proves the effectiveness of vaccine barrier. In addition, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) announced in March 9th that it had signed an agreement with Pfizer Inc that it would be responsible for the commercial operation of PAXLOVID, a COVID-19 drug in the Chinese mainland market during the agreement period (2022), and that the pace of oral drug introduction was accelerated again. Taking into account the gradual reduction of virus harm + the improvement of immune capacity brought by vaccine, and with the help of the "combination fist" of dynamic zeroing + vaccine popularization + antigen detection + promotion of specific drugs / oral drugs, China can dynamically adjust according to the epidemic situation, or is expected to explore a new anti epidemic path more suitable for the epidemic situation.

Investment advice: we suggest to continue to pay attention to the four main lines of recovery logic: 1) Recommend the hotels at the bottom of the cycle / with stable long-term growth logic, and focus on the high-quality targets Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group; 2). Recommend Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , targets of high-quality scenic spots benefiting from the increased penetration of leisure tourism and peripheral tourism, and pay attention to China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , Fosun tourism culture opened up by Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) tourism business and Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) , which benefit from the increased attention of ice and snow tourism; 3). It is suggested to pay attention to Haidilao, Xiabu and Xiabu, the leading catering enterprises that are expected to be repaired in the same store after the epidemic, and jiumaojiu, a new brand & a new business type that is hatching; 4). It is recommended to recommend the tax-free sector benefiting from consumption return and consumption upgrading and the human services sector with obvious anti cyclical attribute. It is recommended to recommend China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) .

Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Repeated outbreaks exceed the expected risk; The risk of intensified industry competition; The landing of new projects / products is less than the expected risk; Food safety risks; Risk of major teaching accidents

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