Industry core view:
2022.3.072022.3.11: the decline of new power industry this week was - 0.56%, and the decline of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in the same period was - 4.22%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.66 PCT. It ranks second among Shenwan's 31 industry sectors.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: according to China Automobile Industry Association, 368000 and 334000 vehicles were produced and sold in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market in mid February, with a year-on-year increase of 2 times and 1.8 times respectively, and a month-on-month increase of - 18.6% and - 22.6% respectively; It has decreased month on month, maintained high-speed growth year-on-year, and the overall performance is still excellent. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 820000 and 765000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.5 times respectively; From the perspective of penetration rate, the market share of new energy vehicles reached 17.9% from January to February this year. The continuous rise of oil prices has imposed a great burden on fuel vehicle owners. Superimposed on the impact of the recent epidemic on some industries, the purchasing power of entry-level automobile consumers has been affected to a certain extent. We are optimistic that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to rise in the future; At the same time, the nickel price soared and the cost of high nickel ternary battery manufacturers was under pressure. We are optimistic that the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries equipped with low-end models will be further improved in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant cathode targets.
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development has been issued, which puts forward the requirements for reasonably controlling the total energy consumption and carbon emission in the construction field. The specific goal is to complete the energy-saving transformation of existing buildings with an area of more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings with an area of more than 50 million square meters, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in new buildings in China will be more than 50 million KW, and the application area of geothermal energy will be more than 100 million square meters, The replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings reached 8%, and the proportion of power consumption in building energy consumption exceeded 55%. The policy is favorable and the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation is improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets of photovoltaic equipment industry, such as Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ). In terms of wind power, on March 8, the wind turbine procurement bid opening of Shenneng Sunit Zuoqi 500MW UHV wind power project. The project is divided into two bid sections, with 12 complete machine manufacturers bidding respectively. The unit price converted from the bid price of CRRC Shandong is the lowest price of 1408 yuan / kW in both bid sections, which will be the lowest in the industry. The cost reduction rate of wind power is higher than expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the wind power equipment sector.
Hydrogen energy: on March 8, Guangzhou Petrochemical first realized the 12 hour filling of high-purity hydrogen and the delivery of 8 vehicles, with a delivery volume of nearly 2 tons, reaching a new record, helping the rapid development of hydrogen energy industry in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay area. We believe that hydrogen energy has become an important direction for the transformation of traditional energy enterprises. At the same time, traditional energy enterprises have inherent advantages in developing new energy. For example, refineries with extensive distribution of oil enterprises can provide ready-made hydrogen resources, and centralized hydrogen production has cost advantages; The terminal filling station and pipe network are close to the consumer end, with facility advantages; He has rich experience in production, storage and transportation, use, standards and safety, and has technical advantages. Moreover, hydrogen fuel vehicles can give full play to the excellent performance of long-distance heavy load and enable the large-scale application of heavy truck vehicles in traditional enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets of fuel cell industry and traditional energy enterprises with hydrogen energy layout, such as Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic situation, the work is less than expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; The investment in power grid is less than expected.
