Industry core view:
Under the macro background of "steady growth", the fundamentals of the real estate industry continue to stay at the bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of "development +".
Key investment points:
Market review last week: affected by the international environment, the real estate sector made a significant adjustment with the market last week. Last week, the real estate index of shenwanyi industry fell 5.48%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22%, weaker than the market. Since 2022, the real estate industry has fallen by 5.62%, and the CSI 300 index has fallen by 12.83%, with significant relative gains.
Key policy highlights: (1) since the continuous data, residents' medium and long-term loans have negative growth for the first time. The central bank released the financial statistics report for February 2022. Data show that in February 2022, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, household loans decreased by 336.9 billion yuan, including short-term loans decreased by 291.1 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan; (2) The first batch of centralized land supply in Dongguan was officially launched, involving 8 parcels of 332900 square meters. Although there is a total price limit for the land supply, it does not limit the sales price of new houses, and reduces the deposit for auction delivery. Among them, the decrease of Chang'an plot is 1.19 billion yuan. In addition, the partial cancellation of the allocation requirements has not only increased the flexibility of free adjustment of real estate enterprises, but also eased the financial constraints of real estate enterprises; (3) Previously, 6 of the 11 land listed in Nanchang were traded and 5 triggered "circuit breaker", and the heat of the land auction market rebounded. The real estate enterprises participating in the auction are still mainly state-owned enterprises and less local private enterprises; (4) Chongqing, Chengdu, Changsha and other places release land supply information.
Industry fundamentals: affected by the base, the decline in sales has narrowed, and the performance of the land market is still weak. From February 28 to March 6, the sales of commercial houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell by 28% year-on-year, including 1% in the first line, 36% in the second line and 46% in the third line; The supply and construction area of residential land in Baicheng has been rolling around, with a year-on-year decrease of 49.8%, and the decline narrowed. Since the beginning of the year, it has decreased by 60% year-on-year. The transaction and construction area of residential land in Baicheng has decreased by 70.7% year-on-year, and the premium rate of residential land in Baicheng is 0.6%, up 0.1 percentage points month on month.
Key company dynamics: Country Garden issued a Clarification Announcement on the recent market rumors and the performance of its stock price and bond market. It said that the company was in good operation, had sufficient available cash reserves, and the support of financial institutions to the company remained unchanged. From December 30, 2021 to the announcement date, it had repurchased the total principal of senior notes by US $45.7 million. Yuzhou property under Yuzhou group was finally sold to China Resources Vientiane life for 1.058 billion yuan; Vanke's omnicloud has submitted approval materials to the CSRC, or will go to Hong Kong for IPO; Longguang group revitalized its assets and sold Shantou project to Zhonghai Hongyang at a price of 1.024 billion yuan to fulfill its debt repayment obligations; Several companies released the operating data for the first two months of 2022.
Risk factors: the strength of the policy is less than expected, the industry fundamentals continue to decline rapidly, and the credit risk is higher than expected
