Market review and Industry Valuation
Pharmaceutical biology fell 2.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.15 percentage points and ranking fourth among the 31 Shenwan sub banks. The pharmaceutical sub sector rose or fell, with in vitro diagnosis rising the most, up 4.62%, and hospitals falling the most, down 7.32%. As of March 11, 2022, the PE (TTM) of shenwanyi pharmaceutical industry is 30.64 times, and the latest premium rate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 146%. The valuation of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in the sub sector is the highest, which is 70.94 times, and the valuation of medical consumables is the lowest, which is 11.45 times.
Industry highlights
Application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection
Establishment of the national pharmaceutical Commission
Progress of New Coronavirus pneumonia
As of March 13, 2022, there are 116902 confirmed cases in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), 8531 confirmed cases, 4636 dead cases, 103735 cured and discharged cases, and 16337 confirmed cases imported from abroad. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, as of March 12, 2022, China had received 3.189 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine.
As of March 13, 2022, 457 million cases had been confirmed in the world. The country with the largest number of cases was the United States, with a total of 81.17 million, followed by India and Brazil, with 42.99 million and 29.37 million confirmed respectively. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, as of March 12, 2022, covid-19 vaccine had been vaccinated 10.973 billion doses worldwide, and the vaccination proportion (number of complete vaccinations / total population) was 56.63%.
Core view
The application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial) recently issued by the State Council proposes to promote the monitoring mode of “antigen screening and nucleic acid diagnosis”, and add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection, which can be used for symptomatic personnel, isolation observers and community residents with antigen self-detection needs in grass-roots medical and health institutions. Since the release of the plan, 10 covid-19 antigen products have been approved in China. At present, the epidemic situation in many places in the country is severe. The demand for such products may increase rapidly, and the enterprises related to the industrial chain are expected to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) and other listed companies.
The overall valuation of the industry is at a historically low level and the industrial development trend is good. We maintain the optimistic view of the industry and suggest paying attention to the following directions: (1) China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) especially the rapid development of biopharmaceutical field, but there are still shortcomings in the upstream supply chains of basic links, high-end pharmaceutical equipment, life science reagents, consumables, instruments and equipment, and the main markets are occupied by foreign-funded enterprises, The “14th five year plan” for pharmaceutical industry development proposed for the first time that “comprehensively improve the modernization level of pharmaceutical industry chain, realize the stability and controllability of supply chain, and accelerate the innovation driven development transformation”. Driven by the continuous improvement of policy and technical level, China’s upstream high-tech industry chain will develop rapidly and accelerate domestic substitution. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant subdivided fields; (2) Driven by policies, talents, capital and other factors, domestic innovative drugs have developed rapidly, entered the harvest period of achievements, opened the road of internationalization and ushered in a new stage of upgrading. They have begun to gradually transform from me too / me worth to higher quality and more innovative me better and first in class. In the future, whether in the Chinese market or overseas market, they have strong R & D strength and rich pipelines, The advantages of domestic innovation leading enterprises with reasonable gradient and outstanding product differentiation advantages will be further highlighted, which is recommended to be paid attention to; (3) Global and Chinese innovative drug R & D is booming, production capacity continues to transfer to China, and China’s CXO industry is developing rapidly. It is expected that with the promotion of policies, the continuous improvement of technical level and relevant demand, the industry concentration is expected to further improve, and the head effect is becoming more and more obvious. It is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders and sub leaders, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) etc.
Risk tips
Industry policy risk, drug safety risk, R & D risk and market competition risk.
