Industry core view:
Last week (March 7-march 13), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00%, the Shenwan social service index fell 7.91%, and the social service index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.91 percentage points; Last week, all the main sub sectors of social services fell: Hotel Catering – 11.65%, tourism and scenic spots – 7.16%, education – 9.9%, professional services – 3.2% and sports – 5.72%. China exemption group released the performance report from January to February this year, with a revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%. Recently, the general office of the people’s Government of Yunnan Province issued the notice on several policies and measures on accurately doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and accelerating the recovery and development of tourism, which clearly requires the strict implementation of the requirements of “Five Prohibitions” and “three prohibitions” to prevent the increase of epidemic prevention at all levels. In 2021, the number of residential orders of rural villagers on Tujia platform increased by 30% year-on-year compared with 2020, generating more than 2 billion yuan for rural landlords. At present, there are more than 3.5 million home stay in China. Among them, rural home stay is the fastest growing market after the epidemic. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, Gansu suspended the operation of inter provincial team tourism and “air ticket + Hotel” business by travel agencies and online tourism enterprises. The number of confirmed cases of covid-19 in Hong Kong in a single day continued to exceed 10000, and the number of anti-virus cases in the mainland increased by 528, affecting the recovery process of tourism retail industry. Recently, the Haidian education WeChat official account has updated the list of disciplines outside the training institutions that have completed the charging record review. The update includes 31 toll accounts outside the training institutions. Among them, Gaosi training school, Puxin training school and Haifan language training school are listed. The China Consumer Association released the 2021 report on the protection of consumers’ rights and interests in the field of after-school education and training, pointing out that there are still many problems in the current after-school education and training industry, such as many contract disputes, difficult to solve after-sales problems, many false publicity means, high risk of prepaid consumption and so on.
1. Tourism: suggestions: 1) tax exemption leader with excellent and stable business performance and benefiting from policy support and channel advantages; 2) The performance leader benefiting from the recovery of passenger flow and consumption under the normalization of the epidemic; 3) Head travel agencies benefiting from the popularity of suburban travel, peripheral travel and more relaxed support policies; 4) A hotel leader with strong anti risk ability. 2. Education: a vocational education company that actively transforms and develops and meets the policy requirements.
Key investment points:
Industry related news: 1) Tourism: China free group released the performance report from January to February, with a revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; Yunnan government takes action to save water and fire; Tujia B & B: in 2021, the order volume of rural B & B increased by 30% year-on-year; Gansu: suspend inter provincial team tourism and “air ticket + Hotel” business; Hong Kong’s daily holdings have increased by more than 10000, and the mainland has increased by 528 cases – the rebound of the epidemic has affected the recovery process of tourism retail industry. 2) Education: 31 discipline after-school training institutions in Haidian District have completed the fee filing review; There are many contract disputes, difficult after-sales, false publicity and high risk of prepayment. The China Consumer Association named the after-school training industry.
Important announcements of listed companies: Lijiang Yulong Tourism Co.Ltd(002033) annual report, Xi’An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) major contracts, Xi’An Tourism Co.Ltd(000610) personnel changes, Wuhan Ddmc Culture & Sports Co.Ltd(600136) loan guarantee, Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) performance express, Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) pledge freeze.
Risk factors: 1. Risk of natural disasters and safety accidents. 2. Policy risk. 3. Investment, M & A and integration risk.
