Industry core view:
Last week (March 7, 2022 to March 13, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00%, and the Shenwan food and beverage index fell 2.06%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.94 percentage points, ranking third among the 31 Tier-1 sub industries of Shenwan. Last week, the A share market fell sharply, and all the sectors of food and beverage also fell. But the Baijiu sector dropped by 0.64%, the smallest in the sub sector. The National Bureau of statistics released CPI data in February 2022, including liquor prices rising 0.2%, up 2% over the same period, and Baijiu market gradually warming. Recently, a number of listed companies announced the 1-2 month business data this year, Baijiu brilliant performance: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) revenue and net profit have achieved an increase of about 20% over the same period, and net profit of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) has increased by 26% over the same period. The Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) are expected to grow 1-2 in the same month. In the long run, Baijiu consumption is sticky, consumer demand is stable, and the potential energy for inflation remains, and the fundamentals remain good. In terms of public food, with the escalation of the situation in Ukraine, wheat prices rose to a new high in recent 14 years. The demand rigidity of mass food industry is strong, and it is easy to pass on cost pressure to consumers through price increase. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will further push up the cost pressure of mass food enterprises. The mass food industry may usher in a second price increase, and the downstream price increase logic is expected to be continuously verified. Suggestions: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu (Baijiu): Liquor: high-end liquor has a higher growth certainty, and the growth of the high-end liquor is still enough. It is recommended to focus on the high-end and secondary liquor allocation opportunities; 1. 2) Beer: the process of high-end beer is accelerated, the performance of industry leaders is bright, and the long-term good trend is clear. It is suggested to pay attention to high-end beer leaders; 3) Popular food: the demand for popular food is rigid, and the cost drives the price increase logic of the popular food industry, which is expected to be continuously verified. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of popular food such as condiments and leisure snacks.
Key investment points:
Baijiu weekly: last week, the Baijiu sector fell 0.64%, of which Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (-4.68%), Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (-6.23%) and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (-8.73%) fell by three. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) decreased by 0.65%, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) decreased by 2.61% Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : last week, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor decreased slightly. In the past 20 years, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai liquor decreased to about 3190 yuan, and the price of Feitian bulk bottle remained unchanged at 2850 yuan / bottle. Maotai’s net profit in the first two months was 10.2 billion. On the evening of March 7, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released the first monthly operation data in history. According to the announcement, according to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year. The sales of Maotai wine increased by 91.8% last year and the profit doubled. On the afternoon of March 9, the “Maotai wine 2021 annual supplier conference” with the theme of “working together for a common destiny and looking forward to the future” was held in Changli, Hebei Province. The meeting revealed that 2021 was the first year of the 14th five year plan for Maotai wine. Under the impact of the epidemic, it maintained a high-speed development momentum for the fourth consecutive year. The annual sales revenue increased by 91.8% year-on-year, and the sales profit doubled, realizing the overall goal of improving both revenue and profit indicators Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : Liu Miao is the Secretary of the Party committee and chairman of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) group. On March 7, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Group Co., Ltd. held a cadre meeting, at which it was announced that Zhang Liang would no longer serve as the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) group and would serve as the leader of the preparatory group of Zhida investment group and Sichuan yuanjingda food company; Liu Miao served as secretary of the Party committee and chairman of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) group and continued to serve concurrently as secretary of the Party committee and chairman of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) group. Xifeng wine: Xifeng wine has reached strategic cooperation with Baichuan famous products. On March 10, the wine industry learned from Xifeng that Xifeng wine reached a strategic cooperation with Baichuan famous products supply chain management Co., Ltd., with the first order amount of 50 million yuan Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : the net profit in the first two months is expected to increase by about 130% year-on-year Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) release the operation from January to February 2022. From January to February, the company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of about 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 120% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 465 million yuan, an increase of about 130% over the same period last year Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : from January to February, the revenue was 2.45 billion, and the net profit increased by 26%. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) products increased well and achieved a “good start”. After preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the total operating revenue of jinshihuan was about 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 940 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 26% Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : from January to February, the revenue exceeded 7.4 billion and the net profit soared by more than 50%. On March 9, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) issued an announcement on the operation from January to February 2022. The announcement shows that from January to February this year, Fenjiu is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit was more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%.
Other sectors of food and beverage:
Dairy products: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) : on the evening of March 10, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) issued the announcement on main business conditions from January to February 2022. Yili official pointed out that after preliminary accounting, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 21.5 billion yuan from January to February 2022, an increase of more than 15% year-on-year; The total profit was about 3.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%. According to the announcement data, from January to February this year, Yili recorded a single month operating revenue of more than 10 billion, which can be described as the strongest “good start” in history, and the overall performance hit another record high.
New product: Snow Beer, snow beer. It is reported that the overall packaging of the new product adopts 703 exclusive cherry crimson number, takes the rich white beer as the tone, adds orange peel, coriander seed and griot sour cherry, matches with the preferred Austrian elderberry, and creates cherry crimson velvet wine body through El upper fermentation process, focusing on the female market. According to the official flagship store of snowflake tmall, the full box price of the new 12 330ml bottle is 144 yuan, and the discounted price is 119.52 yuan.
Soft drinks: Hebei Yangyuan Zhihui Beverage Co.Ltd(603156) : on March 10, Hebei Yangyuan Zhihui Beverage Co.Ltd(603156) announced that the operating revenue in 2021 was 6.906 billion yuan, an increase of 55.99% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.77%. This is the second time that Hebei Yangyuan Zhihui Beverage Co.Ltd(603156) performance has entered the growth channel after declining for two consecutive years.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 The economic growth rate is lower than expected.
