Core view
Industry view: independent rise, electric intelligence. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, geopolitics and other comprehensive factors, global commodity prices have continued to rise, the prices of important raw materials for automobile production such as aluminum, magnesium, lithium, steel, petroleum, rubber and chips have continued to rise, and the costs of complete vehicles and parts have continued to be under pressure. Since February, some complete vehicle enterprises have officially announced price increases, and the market is worried that the pressure on the supply side will eventually be transmitted to the demand side, The recent correction range of the automobile sector is large. We believe that the price trend of raw materials is difficult to predict in the short term, but the trend of electrification and intelligent upgrading of the automobile industry remains unchanged, which is still the main logic of the next 5-10 dimensions. Some parts fall to a reasonable valuation level, and the medium and long-term configuration value is prominent. We recommend the rise of independent brands and the intelligent upgrading of automobile electrification. Main line 1: in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 15%, and the key point entered the accelerated penetration. Under the background of the bottom support of three electricity technology, the logic of vehicle production changed. The independent brand surpassed the joint venture in terms of organizational structure, supply chain perfection and business model, and is optimistic about the industrial chain investment opportunities brought by the rise of independent brands for a long time. Main line 2: policy, technology, Tesla and other multiple factors are superimposed. New energy vehicles have entered the stage of high-quality development. Demand drives the improvement of vehicle product power, and the technical trend is to upgrade to lithium iron phosphate, 4680 cylinder, multi-in-one electric drive system, vehicle platform high voltage and other multidimensional upgrading. Mainline 3: the core of automotive intelligence is the application of data flow. Incremental parts include: acquisition end - laser radar, millimeter wave radar, camera and other sensors, transmission end - high-speed connector, calculation end - domain controller, application end - air suspension, wire controlled braking and steering, interaction end - HUD, interactive lamp, central control instrument, sky glass, on-board acoustics, etc.
Market resumption: CS auto fell 4.45%, weaker than the market. This week (2022030720220311), CS cars fell 4.45%, CS passenger cars fell 4.40%, CS commercial vehicles fell 6.38%, CS auto parts fell 4.19%, CS auto sales and services fell 3.64%, CS motorcycles and others fell 1.96%, new energy vehicle index fell 4.17%, smart vehicle index fell 3.97%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22% and Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00%. CS auto was weaker than CSI 300 index and Shanghai Composite Index by 0.23/0.45pct, down 19.07% year to date.
Data tracking: car sales in February increased by 18.7% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 19.2%. In February 2022, China's automobile production and sales were 1.813/1.737 million respectively, with a month on month ratio of - 26.1% / - 31.4% and a year-on-year ratio of + 20.6% / + 18.7% respectively; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars / commercial vehicles / new energy vehicles was 148.7/25.0334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 27.8% / - 16.6% / + 184.3% respectively, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in February was 19.2%. In 2021, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 26.082/26.275 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.4% / + 3.8% respectively. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.521 million, a year-on-year increase of + 157.5%.
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about electric and intelligent vehicles. Energy end Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) etc; Moving end Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , etc; Interaction end Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Vehicle end: SAIC, GAC, great wall, Chang'an, Byd Company Limited(002594) etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the industrial chain of lidar, integrated die casting and new energy electric drive system.
Risk tip: Auto chip capacity risk, sales volume downside risk, traditional enterprise reform risk.
