Market review:
Last week (March 7-march 11, 2022), the Shenwan machinery equipment industry index rose by - 4.9%, and the CSI 300 index rose by - 4.2%. The machinery industry lost 0.7pct compared with the CSI 300 index. Shenwan 31 first-class industries did not rise, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 21st, with the overall performance in the downstream.
Key points of the industry:
Semiconductor equipment: the global semiconductor equipment boom is high, and the revenue and orders of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) 1-february are high. According to the global data, the global semiconductor industry sales in January were US $50.7 billion, up + 26.8% year-on-year and - 0.2% month on month. In January, Japan's semiconductor equipment shipment reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of + 69.4% and a month on month increase of + 0.97%. According to semi's prediction, the global semiconductor equipment sales from 2021 to 2022 will be $103 billion and $114 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 44.7% and + 9.7%. According to the data of China's key equipment companies from January to February, the revenue of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) leading semiconductor equipment company was + 135% year-on-year, and the new orders were + 30% year-on-year; The revenue of semiconductor test equipment Longhua Toufeng measurement and control was + 172% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 241% year-on-year. There was a strong demand for domestic equipment. As the world's largest semiconductor equipment market, China's domestic semiconductor equipment has achieved technological breakthroughs in many subdivided fields. With the increase of downstream capital expenditure and domestic substitution, China is optimistic about the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment with the continuous improvement of localization rate.
Lithium battery equipment: in February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase, and the market penetration reached 19.2%.
China Automobile Association released the production and sales data of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles in mid February, with an output of 368000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 197.5% and a month on month increase of - 18.6%; The sales volume was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of + 184.3% and a month on month increase of - 22.6%. Power battery manufacturers actively shipped. In February, the output of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 31.8gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 236.2%; The installed capacity of power battery was 13.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 145.1%. According to the statistics of OFweek lithium power grid, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , zhongchuangxin aviation, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) to 2025, the capacity planning is 670, 600, 500, 600 and 300gwh respectively; GGII predicts that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market will exceed 5.5 million in the middle of 2022, and the market penetration rate will exceed 20%. With the acceleration of global electrification and the active expansion of battery enterprises, lithium battery equipment has fully benefited. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of lithium battery equipment brought by new technologies such as 4680.
Photovoltaic equipment: the EU has proposed the target of TW photovoltaic installation, and China's n-type battery industrialization has been accelerated recently. The EU proposes the target of 1000gw Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed capacity in 2030 to get rid of dependence on Russian natural gas and oil as soon as possible. Recently, new progress has been made in the industrialization of n-type batteries: 1) in terms of TOPCON, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) independently developed 210mmi TOPCON, with a maximum conversion efficiency of 25.5%, setting a world record; 2) In terms of hjt, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) the first GW level mass production 210 heterojunction battery was put into operation, Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) microcrystalline hjt equipment was settled in Jinneng, and the target conversion efficiency was 25% +. Compared with hjt, TOPCON is expected to usher in large-scale production in 22 years, and the new production expansion of TOPCON is expected to exceed 50gw; Hjt has great cost reduction pressure. Localization of silver slurry, reduction of silver slurry consumption and reduction of silicon wafer thickness are the main cost reduction paths. In the past 22 years, n-type battery has ushered in large-scale mass production. It is suggested to pay attention to the increase in equipment demand brought by new technologies.
Construction machinery: the decline in excavator sales narrowed in February, and the sales volume was better than CME's expectation. In February, the sales volume of China's excavator was 24483 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 13.5%; the sales volume of China's market was 17052 units, with a year-on-year decrease of - 30.5%, which was 17.8pct narrower than that in January; The export sales volume was 7431 units, with a year-on-year increase of 97.7%. The two sessions proposed to expand effective investment and moderately advance infrastructure investment. Under the policy of steady growth, industry demand is expected to pick up.
Risk factors: the capital expenditure of the semiconductor industry is lower than expected, the downstream demand is lower than expected, and the industry competition intensifies the risk
