Key investment points:
Investment suggestions: 1) complete vehicles and parts: in February 2022, China’s automobile sales volume was 1.737 million, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 4.268 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. With the gradual easing of the shortage of automobile chips and the expectation of stable growth policy, it is expected that the automobile production and sales volume will further increase in the first quarter of 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to independent brands. Recently, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued the final rule that the automatic driving car manufacturer does not need to have a manual driving control system for fully automatic driving vehicles. With the improvement of the automatic driving regulations and the development of the industry, the automatic driving is expected to be gradually liberalized from the present stage of the regional road test. Therefore, the suppliers of forward-looking automatic driving chip, algorithm, sensor, automatic driving system and so on are expected to benefit for a long time. 2) New energy vehicles: in February 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of 184.3%. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 765000, with a year-on-year increase of 154.7%. Under the background of rising prices of terminal products and high raw material prices of some auto enterprises, the sales performance was slightly better than the market expectation. We expect that the sales volume of new energy vehicles this year is expected to exceed 5.2 million, and the demand remains booming, According to the express report on the operation of some lithium battery enterprises from January to February, the performance of the enterprises is still good. Therefore, we still suggest to focus on the leading enterprises in technology and market position in the new energy vehicle industry chain.
Market review: last week, the auto (Shenwan) industry index fell 4.75%, 0.53 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Among them, the key subdivided industries rose or fell by – 4.20% for passenger cars, 5.99% for commercial vehicles and – 5.16% for auto parts. The new energy vehicle index fell 4.68%, 0.45 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index. Among them, the rise and fall range of key sub industries in one week was – 1.72% for power battery, – 4.42% for lithium positive electrode, – 0.62% for lithium negative electrode, – 2.76% for lithium diaphragm and – 1.16% for electrolyte.
Industry trends: 1) new regulations on automatic driving in the United States are released, and fully automatic driving vehicles do not need manual control; 2) CEO of Volkswagen Group: the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine may be more serious than covid-19; 3) Toyota will cut production by 20% due to the shortage of raw materials such as and chips.
Company dynamics: 1), Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) : Announcement on the shareholding increase plan of the company’s controlling shareholders; 2) Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) : Announcement on the operation from January to February 2022; 3) Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) : Announcement on main business conditions from January to February 2022; 4) Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) : Announcement on share repurchase plan of the company.
Risk factors: the sales volume of vehicles is lower than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the policy is lower than expected.
