Industry: the contradiction of oversupply is prominent, and the rise of feed cost intensifies the loss of single head
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the average selling price of pigs at the end of February was 12.45 yuan / kg, down 1.52 yuan / kg month on month; The average sales price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 3.68 yuan / kg, up 0.05 yuan / kg month on month. The profit and loss of self breeding and self feeding and outsourcing fattening heads were -481.90 yuan / head and -485.85 yuan / head respectively, and the loss range was enlarged by 170.35 yuan / head and 153.62 yuan / head respectively. The national development and Reform Commission's pig grain price ratio is 4.89. Since mid February, the official pig grain price ratio has triggered a national level early warning. In early March, the central government has successively started the collection and storage of two batches of central reserve frozen pork, with a cumulative collection and storage volume of 78000 tons.
In terms of changes in supply and demand, according to the monitoring slaughtering data of Yongyi consulting, the slaughtering volume of monitoring samples in February also remained relatively high year-on-year. From March to may, 2021, the number of fertile sows increased month on month and was at a cyclical high. It is expected that a higher number of pigs will be sold from March to June, 2022. On the consumer side, affected by the recent rise of covid-19 epidemic in China, the short-term consumption pressure increases, and the contradiction of excess supply in the industry will become more significant, which is expected to further suppress the downward price.
From the perspective of industrial production capacity, it is expected that the number of samples monitored by the Ministry of agriculture of the industry will continue to decline in February. It is expected that in February, the industrial capacity will be reduced by 0.0% - 1.0%. Since the beginning of the year, some farmers have gradually formed rebound expectations for pig prices in the second half of the year, limiting the de conversion range of short-term single month production capacity to a certain extent. However, considering the downward trend of pig prices and the amplification of single breeding loss, we maintain optimistic expectations for the extent of capacity removal from March to may 2022. The loss of single breeding head will also show an amplification trend, and the continuous loss will drive the clearing of inferior production capacity.
Enterprises: the year-on-year change of pig slaughter volume of listed pig enterprises in February showed differentiation
As of February 11, 2022, 12 major listed pig breeding enterprises have released February pig sales data. In February, listed pig breeding enterprises listed a total of 11.9 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 49%. Among them, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) fromjanuary to February, 783.1/106.9/97.7/35.7/30.5/28.1/6.824000 heads were listed respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 60.2% / 114.4% / 40.1% / 76.7% / 104.9% / 62.9% / 42.1% / 2.1% respectively Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tiankang Co., Ltd. the number of pigs sold decreased month on month, with 50.0/28.7/12.280000 pigs sold in February, a year-on-year decrease of 33.6% / 5.7% / 19.2% / 20.1% respectively. The marketing volume of listed pig enterprises differentiated year-on-year.
In February, the average weight of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) commercial pigs was 117.4/106.6/108.8/115.4/128.3kg/head respectively, with a month on month change of + 1.0 / + 1.4 / - 10.0 / + 2.2 / + 15.2kg/head respectively. Average sales price: the average sales price of commercial pigs of all enterprises in February ranged from 10.9-12.6 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year decrease of about 55.5%; There are eight major listed pig companies, and the average selling price of all the eight listed pig companies have seen a month on month decline. The average selling price of pig prices at the top of eight major listed pig companies is down on a month on month basis, and the average selling price of pig prices at the Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 11% / - 13% / - 10% / - 14% / - 12% / - 12% / - 13% Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 1-february average sales price was 12.4 yuan / kg, down 16% from December 2021.
Risk tip: the prosperity of pig prices is lower than expected, and the decline of breeding costs of listed companies is lower than expected.
