Securities industry perspective
Recently, the average daily turnover of the two cities has reached trillion, which has become the norm, and the pressure of short-term brokerage business / wealth management business has been relieved. At the same time, the reform and innovation of the securities industry in recent years, such as fund investment adviser / new asset management regulations / the implementation of comprehensive registration system, will greatly stabilize the performance fluctuation of the securities industry, and the short-term market fluctuation will not change the good momentum of the medium and long-term performance of the securities industry.
In the long run, we believe that the supporting logic of the performance growth of the securities industry lies in:
(1) the increase in performance brought about by the transformation of brokerage business to wealth management mode is mainly due to the constant trend of residents’ deposits from banks that bring lower returns and liquidity to the stock market that can bring higher returns and high liquidity, superimposed by the expansion of the pilot fund investment adviser of securities companies and the increase in residents’ demand for active management business, The holding scale of the fund is expected to be steadily improved to provide a steady stream of performance support for securities companies.
(2) the performance increment contributed by the new market places bred by innovative business, such as the expansion of securities lending scale, the strong demand for derivatives business inside and outside the market, the exploration of securities settlement fund model and the popularization of “investment bank + investment” two wheel driven business model, will raise the performance level of securities companies. From the perspective of the whole securities industry, the above growth support logic will provide new revenue growth points; For large-scale securities companies, it will further develop in the strategic direction of building aircraft carrier level securities companies in the country; For small and medium-sized securities companies, their exhibition direction and ability will benefit from the new blue ocean market and earn differentiated income.
The undervalued value of securities companies shows the value of allocation
The brokerage sector has shown a callback trend since the beginning of the year. At present, PB1 It is at the high point of 4x and the margin of safety is 0.68. Considering that the performance forecasts and express reports disclosed by many securities companies recently show that the growth rate of revenue and net profit has increased steadily, and there are many bright achievements, we believe that the fundamentals of securities companies have not deteriorated, and the downward trend of stock price and valuation has opened the allocation time point.
Risk tip: the effect of policy implementation is less than expected or even tightened, liquidity is tightened, stock based turnover has fallen sharply, and the overall market downside risk.
