Baijiu: cash flow of channel is abundant, stock is benign, Q1 high growth can be expected, and there is differentiation inside the sector. On the whole, the marginal effect of wealth has weakened and the consumption scene has recovered. The demand side of high-end Baijiu is maintained, and dynamic sales are expected to maintain steady growth and apparent acceleration. The 21Q4 of the high-end Baijiu is generally clear and clear, and stable price is set for 2022. Regional leading liquor enterprises have deeply benefited from the recovery of consumption scenes brought by the improvement of the epidemic situation and the refinement of prevention and control. During the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales are strong, and the high growth of the first quarter report is expected.
Popular products: focus on cost pressure and scenario recovery. In terms of sectors, 1) dairy products: the terminal demand of dairy products is strong, and the price of raw milk is stable. The demand for dairy products has improved, and the industry has achieved both volume and price increases. At the same time, the price of raw milk has shown a downward trend, Yili’s income has increased steadily, and the cost pressure has been relieved. In terms of cheese, Miaoke has accelerated the production capacity construction and channel laying of normal temperature cheese sticks, and successively launched upgraded products of low-temperature cheese sticks. The terminal dynamic sales are good, bringing new growth points. 2) Condiment: the cost is still under pressure, and attention is paid to the implementation of price increase. 21q4 condiment enterprises raised prices intensively, driving the steady increase of revenue. During the Spring Festival, the price increase of enterprises was smoothly promoted. According to the progress of price increase, the growth rhythm of revenue in 22q1 was different, and the profit side was expected to remain under pressure considering the high cost of raw materials. 3) Beer: promising start, high-end trend established. Under the influence of the small consumption climax of the Spring Festival from January to February, some beer enterprises achieved a “good start”. It is expected to establish the price elasticity trend of the whole year and increase profits to the end of last year. 4) Other foods: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) during the Spring Festival, the demand is good, dealers actively replenish, and the growth rate picked up in February. Considering that the costs of soybean protein and oil are still high, the company’s revenue growth is expected to be higher than the profit growth Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) 2021 successfully completed the goal of opening about 1400 stores in the whole year. Q4 has begun to sink the layout of the market, and carried out profit subsidies and other profit transfer measures for stores. From January to February, the revenue side grew well and the cost side was under great pressure, with a year-on-year increase Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) during the Spring Festival peak season, the sales situation is good, the transmission of price increase is smooth, and the boxed products with high gross profit during the Spring Festival achieve good growth.
Investment strategy Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu is a strong investment company. We think that liquor companies are strong in performance, anticipation is pessimistic and adjusted more. Now we are entering the performance disclosure period. Many valuations fall down the target, which can be focused on, such as Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , etc. in high-end Baijiu, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in high-end liquor, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) in regional liquor, Gujing and so on. In terms of popular goods, the cost is rising, the scene is weakened, and there may be pressure in the short term, but the logic of “price increase and cost reduction” is still tenable in the long term. Beer, condiments, quick freezing and other tracks are mainly recommended, such as Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , etc.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic may be repeated; Demand recovery is not strong enough; Food safety issues, etc
