\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 733 Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) )
Boehmite is a new inorganic lithium battery coating material, which enjoys the reputation of new energy vehicle industry β+ Double dividend for improving material permeability. As a new inorganic lithium battery coating material, boehmite can effectively improve the safety of batteries and effectively replace the traditional inorganic coating material alumina. We predict that the global demand for lithium batteries from 2021 to 2025 will be 538 / 814 / 1136 / 1551 / 1976gwh, with a compound growth rate of 45%; The demand for boehmite for lithium battery is 3.45/5.99/9.38/14.11/19.94 million tons, with a compound growth rate of 62%, higher than that of lithium battery.
Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) is the leading enterprise of boehmite in the world. Boehmite products of the company have high purity, small median particle size, large specific surface area range and high cost performance. It has become the core supplier of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . In 18 / 19, the company ranked second in the global power battery boehmite industry, with a market share of 31% / 36%, second only to Germany's nabaltec 36% / 37%. According to the Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) prospectus and nabaltec's annual report, the business income of Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) boehmite exceeded nabaltec in 2020, ranking first in the world.
The company's production expansion plan is active and the downstream customers are of high quality. The company is the core supplier of boehmite products of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and has entered the supplier system of many lithium battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Samsung SDI, new energy technology (ATL), Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Tianjin Lishen, Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) and so on. With the logic of industry dividend + boehmite penetration increase dividend + company market share increase, we expect the company's boehmite production capacity to be 2.0/6.0100000 tons and sales volume to be 1.6/3.666000 tons from 2021 to 2023, with a global market share of 46.4% / 60.1% / 70.4%; The corresponding revenue was RMB 338 / 744 / 1351 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 144.5% / + 120.5% / + 81.5%. Benefiting from the scale effect, the gross profit margin of boehmite business maintained an upward trend, 46.4% / 49.4% / 52.3% respectively.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 423 / 886 / 1638 million, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 108 / 245 / 487 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 140.0% / + 126.4% / + 98.9%. Give the company 30 times P / E in 2023, and the corresponding target price is 80 yuan. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the global sales of new energy vehicles do not meet expectations; The permeability of boehmite coating did not meet the expectation; Competitors' catch-up progress exceeds expectations; The R & D Progress of new products does not meet expectations; The price of products exceeded expectations.
