\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 821 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) )
Event overview
The scale of orders on hand and revenue growth of the company from January to February reached a record high. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, the operating revenue from January to February increased by more than 130% year-on-year, and it is expected that the operating revenue in 2022q1 increased by more than 150% year-on-year and the amount exceeded 2 billion yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
In the first two months of 22 years, the revenue showed a growth rate of over 130%, showing the high-speed fulfillment of large orders and other business segments
Since 2022, on the basis of undertaking large orders, other business segments of the company have shown a trend of accelerated growth. From January to February 2022, its operating revenue increased by more than 130% year-on-year, and it is expected that the operating revenue in 2022q1 increased by more than 150% year-on-year and the amount exceeded 2 billion yuan. Considering that the company has received three major contracts continuously since November 2021, with a total amount of 9.292 billion yuan, and considering that new businesses (peptides, preparations, biological drugs, small nucleic acids, etc.) continue to show an accelerated growth trend, we generally judge that the company will continue to achieve ultra-high growth in 2022.
Global leader in small molecule cdmo industry, accelerated capital expenditure and strategic emphasis on long tail customers drive the acceleration of corporate performance
The company has been deeply engaged in the field of small molecule cdmo for more than 20 years, and has established a world-class R & D platform with nearly 3000 scientists and engineers. At the same time, the company has upgraded and established four technology platforms since 2020, including process science center, continuous science and technology center, biosynthesis technology R & D center and intelligent manufacturing technology center, which are used for R & D and reserve of various technologies, Support the continuous improvement of cdmo + service capacity of Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , and realize the continuous empowerment of the company’s pipeline under research. In the first half of 2021, the company’s small molecule cdmo business achieved an operating revenue of RMB 1.617 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, of which commercial business accounted for 51.3% and clinical business accounted for 48.7%. Looking forward to the next three years, considering the order increment brought by continuing to cultivate key customers and accelerating the development of long tail customers, as well as the supply side acceleration brought by the acceleration of superimposed capital expenditure, we generally judge that the company’s performance will realize the trend of accelerated growth.
New business development: diversify business layout and add imagination to the company
On the basis of deep cultivation of small molecule cdmo business, the company has rapidly developed chemical macromolecule business (oligonucleotide, polypeptide, liposome, etc.), preparation, bioengineering and other businesses, and steadily expanded clinical research services, biological macromolecule cdmo and other businesses. Among them, the preparation business and bioengineering fields continue to be small molecule, oligonucleotide, polypeptide Continue to empower and realize collaborative business cooperation in the field of biological macromolecules. In the first half of 2021, the company’s new business realized an operating revenue of 144 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 144.62%, including a year-on-year increase of 98.39% in the chemical macromolecule business and 82.72% in the preparation sector. Looking forward to the future, with the continuous layout of synthetic macromolecules, biological macromolecules, clinical cro, biosynthesis and other businesses, the company will realize one-stop service business with small molecule business, realize rapid growth of business and increase the imagination of future performance growth.
Performance forecast and investment suggestions
As China’s leading supplier of small molecule cdmo, the company looks forward to the future and continues to cultivate the integrated service capacity of small molecule “intermediate + API + Preparation”. In addition, the company continues to strengthen the layout in the field of synthetic macromolecules and biological macromolecules, so as to escort the medium and long-term performance growth of the company. Taking into account the delivery and changes of large orders, the expectation for 22-23 years was raised, that is, the revenue in 21-23 years was adjusted from 46.20/116.56/108.14 to 46.20/125.73/12.807 billion yuan, and the EPS was adjusted from 4.02/10.27/9.61 to 3.75/10.31/10.61 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 330.64 yuan / share on March 11, 2022, and the PE was 88.29/32.06/31.16 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The core technology backbone and management risk of loss, the risk of increased competition, the loss of core technical personnel, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the expansion of New Coronavirus’s epidemic affecting China’s external business, and the implementation of COVID-19 orders are lower than expected.
