\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 867 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) )
The company released the 2021 performance express: revenue + 80% year-on-year.
The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 9.155 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 80.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.21%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.193 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.17%. Quarterly, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 2.682 billion yuan in Q4 in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 54.55%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 223 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 26.08%. The substantial growth of the company’s revenue is due to the increase in the number of outlets under the provincial generation model and the significant growth in the sales of gold jewelry; The profit growth rate was lower than that of revenue, which was due to the decline in the proportion of inlaid ornaments with high gross profit and the provision of bad debts of accounts receivable.
With the development of provincial generation model, 313 stores will be added in 2021:
By the end of 2021, the number of stores of the company had reached 4502, with a net increase of 313 stores in the reporting period, including a net increase of 145 stores in the fourth quarter, and the layout of offline stores was accelerated. In 2021q3, the company began to promote the provincial agent model, select provincial agents with channel advantages and expansion ability, and cooperate with the company’s original business team to complete the goal of adding new stores.
Gold jewelry innovation overweight, performance growth can be expected:
In 2021, the company successively launched “love100 constellation Aurora diamond Master Series” and ” Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) extraordinary ancient method gold series” characteristic products. The situational style jewelry product system has been continuously improved, the product R & D has been continuously optimized, and the product competitiveness has been continuously improved. Under the high boom of the gold jewelry industry, the increase in the popularity of gufajin and 5g gold drives the increase in the gross profit margin of gram heavy gold, and the company’s performance is expected to maintain a high growth rate.
Investment suggestion: after the early running in, the advantages of the provincial representative model are highlighted, the layout of the company’s offline stores is accelerated, and the increase in the proportion of gufajin and 5g gold products drives the increase in gross profit margin. We expect that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.228/14.10/1.726 billion from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding PE is 14.9/13.0/10.6x respectively, which is rated as “overweight”.
Risk tip: store development is less than expected, repeated outbreaks lead to consumption less than expected, and gold prices fluctuate sharply.
