\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Events
On the evening of March 11, 2022, the company released the performance express of 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 20.384 billion yuan, an increase of 22.40% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.849 billion yuan, an increase of 30.70% at the same time; Deduct 7.751 billion yuan, an increase of 29.38% at the same time.
Key investment points
Excellent performance in the fourth quarter, looking forward to a good start in the first quarter
The company’s performance was 2021.4 billion yuan, with a revenue increase of 2021.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.74 yuan, an increase of 32.2% at the same time; The deduction of non-profit was 1.474 billion yuan, an increase of 25.4% at the same time. Compared with 2021q3, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent accelerated, and Guojiao successfully completed the goal of 2021.
According to channel feedback, the company is completing the tasks in the first quarter according to the established rhythm. We believe that the annual target growth rate of Guojiao is more than 30% and look forward to a good start in the first quarter.
Five highlights in the future when the revival is in progress
Five highlights of the company in the future: first, brand side: dual brand strategic operation and brand rejuvenation. Guojiao 1573 and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) dual brand strategy. Guojiao 1573 promotes brand influence through Guojiao Huihe and other circle marketing; Put forward brand rejuvenation for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and constantly tap the historical and cultural resources of the old cellar. Enhance the influence of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) brand by creating cultural IP such as “seal collection ceremony”.
Second, product side: focus on five single products, and Guojiao and Tequ continue to make efforts. 1) Focus on high-end liquor to build national cellar 1573; 2) The mid-range liquor Tequ series bears the burden of the rise of waist products. The time-honored brands mainly do the circulation channel, and the 60th edition is currently the national group purchase channel.
Third, the price side: Guojiao follower strategy, Tequ is expected to enter the 300 yuan price band. 1) It is expected to follow the strategy of raising the national price by 1000 yuan in the future; 2) Tequ has raised its price to about 200250 yuan and is expected to enter the price band of 300 yuan in the future.
Fourth, the channel side: the effect of brand franchise mode is remarkable, and the extensive operation has changed to fine operation. The company implements the brand franchise mode, establishes three brand franchise companies, and focuses on fine operation of products.
Fifth, regional expansion: make up for weaknesses with nationalization, continue the battle and advance from east to South at the same time. The company’s traditional advantageous regions southwest, central China and North China account for more than 85%. In 2018, the company proposed the east to South map project. The East China and South China markets ranked lower, which was inconsistent with the company’s position and there was a large gap in volume.
Profit forecast
At present, the nationalization of the company continues to advance, the goal of returning to the top three remains unchanged, the talent echelon is gradually younger, and we strive to advance to the top three in the 14th five year plan. According to the performance express, we slightly adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 5.33/6.77/8.32 yuan (the previous values were 5.22/6.65/7.99 yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 39 / 30 / 25 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, the growth of the national cellar was less than expected, and the expansion outside the province was less than expected.
