\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Event: Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) released the annual performance express of 2021. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 20.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, of which 21q4 achieved a total revenue of 6.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.14%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.21%. The national cellar continued to grow at a high rate, and the growth of medium-grade liquor accelerated. 1) The whole year of 21 years ended successfully, and Q4 growth accelerated month on month (21q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue increased by 5.67% / 20.89% / 24.14% year-on-year). It is estimated that Guojiao 1573 will continue its good growth momentum, accounting for 65% + of the annual revenue, of which the low-level volume is relatively fast and performs well in North China. It is estimated that the low-level revenue in Guojiao 1573 will account for 30% + in 21 years. The sales of Tequ and Jiaoling have gradually improved since the third quarter of 21. After a period of adjustment after the price increase of Tequ, the sales trend has gradually recovered, and low-grade products such as touqu are still in the recovery stage. 2) It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years is 38.51%, an increase of 2.45pct compared with 20 years. The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 single quarter is 25.08%, an increase of 1.53pct year-on-year. The proportion of medium and high-end products promotes structural optimization. At the same time, the company implements fine management and further reduces the expense rate during the year.
During the Spring Festival, the feedback of dynamic sales was positive, and the channel control was further strengthened. During the peak season of the Spring Festival, it is estimated that Guojiao 1573 has maintained a stable growth, and Tequ and Jiaoling have performed well. In terms of subregions, the growth momentum of the company’s headquarters in the southwest market and the main area in the East China market is obvious. In addition to 1573, Tequ version 60 also has good feedback in the southwest market. The growth of East China is faster, and the low 1573 in North China remains highly competitive in the price band of 600700 yuan, Henan market has been affected by the epidemic. The channels generally reported that during the Spring Festival, the collection was 30-40%, and the delivery progress was about 30%. The inventory control was further strengthened, and the inventory level remained benign. At present, the rated price of Guojiao was about 920 yuan, which remained relatively stable. On the whole, it is estimated that the beginning of the 22nd year will continue a good growth trend.
Promote the revival of dual brands and strengthen the potential energy of nationalization. The company adopts dual brand operation, and Guojiao consolidates its high-end brand positioning. At present, the price of Guojiao is stable. According to channel feedback, the company still strictly controls the quota within the plan in 22 years. In addition, it also increases the development of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) brand. In the second half of 21, it launched high-speed bottle wine black cover, and released secondary high-end new product 1952 in October. At present, it is mainly promoted in core cities, focusing on product cultivation, special Qu Cellar age and other mid-range wines are expected to accelerate capacity expansion and increase the market share in mid-range prices in 22 years. In terms of national layout, the company has strengthened its advantages in traditional markets such as southwest China and continued to cultivate in markets such as East China and central China. The channel model is adapted to local conditions, the sales team has strong executive power, fine control over channels and terminals, and equity incentive has enhanced vitality to escort subsequent development.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: according to the 2021 annual performance express, taking into account the subsequent increase in the proportion of medium and high-grade products and the control of the expense rate under precision marketing, the net profit forecast for 202123 is raised to RMB 7.834/97.84/11.814 billion (compared with the previous forecast + 1.6% / + 5.2% / + 7.2%), the corresponding EPS is RMB 5.35/6.65/8.03, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 38 / 31 / 26 times, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic has repeatedly affected the sales of high-end Baijiu, and the competition in the high-end liquor market has intensified.
