\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
On March 10, 2022, the company announced the performance express of 2021: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 13.271 billion yuan, an increase of + 28.95% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.291 billion yuan, an increase of + 23.54% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 2.2 billion yuan, an increase of + 24.14% at the same time. Based on this calculation, 2021q4 company achieved a revenue of 3.169 billion yuan, an increase of + 42.56% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 322 million yuan, an increase of + 1.65% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 298 million yuan, an increase of + 10.06% at the same time.
Q4 revenue increased higher than expected, and the pace of tax recognition led to lower than expected net profit. Under the "precision control" and "dynamic zero clearing" measures, the consumption scenes of banquets, restaurants and other industries have been restored rapidly. The superposition of industrial economic iteration has led to the overall jump of Baijiu consumption structure. The banquet in Hefei of the provincial capital has become the mainstream with the price section of Jiu Jiu 8, and the high growth of ancient 20 and ancient 16 has also promoted the structure. In addition, Yellow Crane Tower and Mingguang also contributed. According to the supplementary agreement on performance commitment of Yellow Crane Tower, the target of tax included revenue in 2021 will exceed 1.7 billion yuan, and the net sales interest rate will not be less than 11%; On March 1, Hua Xingan, chairman of Mingguang liquor industry, introduced at the 2021 annual summary and commendation and 2022 work deployment conference that in 2021, the company exceeded the annual business indicators and became the first industrial enterprise in Mingguang City with a tax of more than 100 million yuan. The net profit of 21q4 is lower than expected or affected by Guangxuan, channel sales expenses and the payment rhythm of income tax, which provides a guarantee for the company to consolidate capital, improve quality and increase efficiency in 2022.
22q1's "good start" has a solid foundation. The improvement of net interest rate under the improvement of structure and the revenue contribution brought by Pan national layout are still the focus of the future. The number of returning to the countryside in 2022 increased significantly, and the epidemic prevention and control in the province was generally stable. All kinds of family visit and drinking scenes and gift giving scenes returned to normal. During the same period, the consumption of liquor in low city and county and township was significantly upgraded. The price of Baijiu was 5, and the sales of gifts were strong, and the short-term inventory was low. The demand for replenishment after the holiday was urgent, which laid the foundation for 22Q1's "start". In addition, we believe that the clues of net interest rate increase and expansion outside the province concerned by the market will continue to be verified in the future. The high economic growth in the province is the basis of residents' income growth and consumption upgrading. The company proposes to "consolidate capital, improve quality and efficiency" in 2022 and steadily move towards the goal of 20 billion (including tax), We will also continue to promote the transformation and upgrading goal of "maintaining the existing scale below gu8, stabilizing the basic market, making key breakthroughs above gu16 and achieving growth". The pan national layout will also show the characteristics of sector expansion. It will break through the market from Anhui to the core sectors of the Yangtze River Delta and North China, such as Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei, Jiangxi, Shanghai and Hubei. With the steady expansion of Anhui's "industrial social circle" and the improvement of regional consumption capacity, the concept of the market will be extended from the region in Anhui Province to the social circle of Anhui native population, and the radiation is expected to increase, Achieve the company's 1:1 regional sales target within / outside the province in the 14th five year plan.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will realize a revenue of 13.271/16.126/19.490 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, a year-on-year increase of + 28.9% / + 21.5% / + 20.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.291/31.64/4.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.5% / + 38.1% / + 35.3%, EPS of 4.34/5.99/8.10 and corresponding PE of 45x / 33x / 24x respectively. Considering the leading position of Huijiu and the expansion momentum of the sector market, the expansion of the industrial social circle in the region will also help Huijiu "go global". The proportion of gu8 and above in the medium and long term is expected to continue to increase, and the goal of pushing up the net interest rate will be gradually realized to maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the support of economic growth in the province does not meet expectations; The consumption scene and consumption capacity were damaged more than expected due to the epidemic; The increasing expansion and competition outside the province has led to the continuous improvement of the cost rate; Goodwill impairment risk
