\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 821 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) )
Key investment points
Operation: it is expected that Q1 large orders will continue to be confirmed, resulting in accelerated high growth of revenue yoy
Company announcement: “The company has maintained a strong growth momentum this year. While continuing to undertake large orders, the business of other sectors has shown a momentum of accelerated growth. The scale of orders on hand and the growth of revenue from January to February hit a record high. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, the operating revenue from January to February increased by more than 130% year-on-year. The company expects that the operating revenue in the first quarter of 2022 will increase by more than 150% year-on-year and the amount will exceed 2 billion yuan RMB “.
Considering the three large orders signed in November 2021 and February 2022 (we expect the total volume to be 9 billion), we believe that the accelerated high growth of 2022q1 revenue comes from the confirmation of large orders and the maintenance of high growth of other orders. We emphasize that with the continuous delivery of orders, the company’s revenue yoy will continue to accelerate growth in 2022.
Acceleration: optimistic about entering a new performance compound growth acceleration cycle
The report of “accelerating the differentiation of cdmo in 2021” and “accelerating the differentiation of cdmo in 2021” As emphasized in Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) : four discussions on the deterministic acceleration trend of performance and long-term ceiling opening 20210726: we believe that the compound growth rate of the company’s revenue side from 2021 to 2023 is expected to enter a new acceleration cycle, The compound growth rate of revenue and profit is expected to accelerate from 30% in 20152020 to 40% in 20212023 + (refer to the profit forecast for 20212023 in our previous reports). We believe that the trend of large order execution and accelerated capital expenditure can also continuously verify our forward-looking judgment.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company’s EPS to be 4.00, 8.89 and 9.50 yuan / share from 2021 to 2023. The closing price on March 11, 2022 corresponds to 37 times of PE in 2022 (35 times of PE in 2023), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of declining prosperity of global innovative drug R & D investment, the risk of new business expansion falling short of expectations, competition risk, exchange risk, the risk of performance falling short of expectations, and the risk of new production capacity falling short of expectations.
