\u3000\u3000 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) )
Event overview
On March 10, 2022, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) held the 2021 performance conference.
Core view
The market is worried that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) real estate has high risk pressure and insufficient profit growth. We believe that: (1) the real estate exposure is clear and the situation is better than the market expectation; (2) The bottom of revenue rebounded, and the operating performance is expected to exceed expectations.
1. Real estate risk concerns are relieved. (1) The real estate base is completely clear Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) further disclosed the real estate exposure data, and the risk base was clear. By the end of 2021a, the real estate loan was 288.9 billion, of which the real estate development loan greatly affected by the industry was only 115.2 billion, accounting for only 3.8% of the total loan; The exposure of off balance sheet sales involving houses was 68.9 billion, accounting for only 7.6% of the sales scale. (2) The impact of risk cases subsided. Baoneng has reached a judicial settlement, and the relevant exposure will form a large pressure drop in 2022. At the same time, judicial measures have been taken for off balance sheet consignment products Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) in terms of exposure, 90% of the exposure has been provided and 1.3 billion repayment has been received.
2. The revenue is expected to bottom up. The recovery of credit card business, the decline of interest margin drag and the promotion of bancassurance business are expected to contribute to the revenue growth rate of 10.0pc. At the same time, considering the impact of investment income and the medium income of investment banks on profits, it is expected that the profits of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) in 2022 are expected to maintain double-digit rapid growth.
(1) credit card returns to positive growth. According to the press conference, the growth rate of credit card revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021 has achieved positive growth, and the trend is good. In the first two months of 2022, credit card revenue increased by + 20% year-on-year. In 2021, installment income is included in interest income. Assuming that the growth rate of credit card income in 2021 is the same as that of credit card handling fee income (excluding installment) (3%), the estimated credit card income in 2021 is 33.8 billion, accounting for 20% of the revenue. Assuming that the growth rate of credit card revenue returns to 20% in 2022, it can contribute to the revenue growth rate of 4.0pc.
(2) the drag of interest margin is expected to improve. Looking forward to 2022, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) believes that although the interest margin will decline in the industry, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) can optimize the decline range of interest margin by controlling the cost of debt and other measures. Considering the trend of high interest rate spread before and low interest rate spread after 2021, the drag of interest rate spread on profit is expected to improve. Under the assumption of broad credit, the growth rate of interest bearing assets in 2022 is the same as that in 2021, and the decline of interest margin is half that in 2021. After deducting the installment income of credit card (assuming that the proportion is the same as that in 2020), the net interest income is 112.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 6.0%, contributing to the growth rate of revenue of 3.8pc.
(3) bancassurance business was comprehensively promoted. ① Initial results: since December 2021, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) bancassurance has achieved a year-on-year + 30%. ② Team building: at present, there are about 1000 private Pb. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that the "three high" team (a wealth management team with high production capacity, high quality, high income and insurance knowledge) is expected to reach 2000 in 2022, and will be expanded to 1 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 000 in the long term. According to the press conference, the production capacity of the "three high" team is twice that of the traditional team. The expansion of high capacity teams is expected to support the rapid growth of wealth business. The calculation is as follows:
① general assumption: the per capita production capacity of private Pb remains unchanged (the per capita contribution AUM remains unchanged). For example, in 2022, private Pb will add 2000 people, and the corresponding AUM of private Pb will be about 878.8 billion; Assuming that the growth rate of AUM of non private banks is the same as that in 2021, the wealth income / AUM remains unchanged, the corresponding incremental income is 2.5 billion, and the contribution of revenue growth is about 1.5pc. ② Positive assumptions: if the capacity of new Pb is doubled, it can contribute 1.8 trillion AUM of new private banks, 3.8 billion incremental revenue and about 2.2pc revenue growth. ③ Long term assumption: if it is increased to 10000 people and the production capacity remains unchanged, the Aum scale of private banks will reach 14 trillion and the revenue of private banks will reach 39.8 billion, accounting for 23% of the revenue in 2021
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will increase by 22.02% / 17.03% / 17.09% year-on-year, corresponding to bps18.00% 68 / 20.93/23.59 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 0.80/0.71/0.63 times of Pb valuation. Maintain the target price of 33.03 yuan / share, corresponding to 1.77x Pb in 22 years, the current price corresponds to 0.80x Pb in 22 years, and the current price space is 122%.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and substantial exposure of adverse.
