\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual performance express on March 11, 2022. The company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 20.384 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 22.40%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 7.849 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 30.70%.
Comments:
The company's performance in 2021 was brilliant, and Q4 performance accelerated month on month. The company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 20.384 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 22.40%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 7.849 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 30.70%. The company's operating revenue exceeded 20 billion yuan in 2021, and its annual performance achieved benign growth. In a single quarter, Q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 6.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.18%. Compared with the third quarter of 2021, the company's Q4 performance accelerated month on month.
The company's product structure has been continuously optimized and fine management has achieved certain results. The company focuses on the dual brand strategy of Guojiao and Laojiao. In 2021, the proportion of medium and high-end products will further increase, and Guojiao will continue to rise. On the basis of consolidating the original categories, the company continues to enrich the product matrix and continuously optimize the product structure. On October 17, 2021, the company launched a new strategic product " Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952", priced at 899 yuan / bottle, injecting new vitality into the company's performance growth. According to the announcement issued by the company, in 2021, the company thoroughly implemented the development policy of "fine management to increase benefits and precision marketing to expand the market", promoted the benign growth of business scale and profitability, further reduced the cost rate, and achieved certain results in fine management.
The company made a good start in 2022 with high certainty. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the dynamic sales of Guojiao 1573, the company's core product, performed well. The dealers are expected to complete about 35% - 40% of the payment, maintain the rated price at about 920 yuan, and maintain the channel inventory at a benign level of about one month. At the same time, about 40% of the company's new products were launched in 1952, and it was determined that the company's new products will be back in 2022.
The registration of the first grant of the restricted stock incentive plan in 2021 has been completed, which is expected to stimulate the company's business vitality. Recently, the company issued an announcement on the completion of the grant registration of restricted shares. Taking December 29, 2021 as the grant date, the company granted 6.9286 million restricted shares to 441 incentive objects who met the grant conditions at the grant price of 92.71 yuan per share. The assessment year of the restricted shares granted by the company for the first time is three fiscal years from 2021 to 2023, and the assessment is conducted once a year. The assessment requirements are set for the three indicators of return on net assets, net profit growth rate and the proportion of costs and expenses in operating revenue. The implementation of the registration of the company's restricted stock incentive plan for the first time is expected to stimulate the company's subsequent business vitality.
Maintain recommended ratings. It is estimated that it will be 33.6 times that of the company in 2026 and 39.2 times that of the company in 2026, respectively. In December 2020, the company put forward the "new 10 billion" goal of Guojiao 1573, and strive to make the sales revenue of Guojiao 1573 exceed 20 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan in 2022 and 2025 respectively. With the continuous optimization of product structure and the gradual refinement of management, it is expected that the potential energy of the company's products will be further released. With the smooth implementation of the superimposed restricted stock incentive plan, the company's performance is expected to thicken. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning. Product promotion is less than expected, channel expansion is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, and food safety problems.
