\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 96 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) )
Background: 1) medical beauty ushered in the era of strict supervision: in 2021, relevant departments issued more than 20 regulations and policies for the medical beauty industry. The supervision is stronger than ever. The supervision goes deep into every link of the industrial chain to clean up non-standard behaviors in the industry. We believe that under this background, those who have entered the industry will have stronger barriers and the industry concentration is expected to increase, Leading enterprises with standardized operation may benefit deeply. 2) The certainty of high growth in the industry is still strong: according to the new oxygen data, by 2021, the scale of China’s medical and American industry is expected to reach 184.6 billion / year-on-year + 21.6%, and the scale of medical and American users will reach 18.13 million / year-on-year + 19.27%, with a compound growth rate of 45.91% compared with 2017. It is expected that with the increase of per capita income, it will penetrate into the lower tier cities and higher age groups, with broad space. The company takes the east wind of the industry, and the differentiated positioning strategy drives high-quality growth. From 2017 to 2021, AMEC’s revenue was RMB 222 / 3.21 / 5.58 / 7.09 / 1.448 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 44.3% / 73.7% / 27.2% / 104.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 82 / 1.23 / 3.06 / 4.4 / 958 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 49.5% / 148.7% / 43.9% / 117.8%. The gross profit margin remained at a high level of more than 85%, and the net profit margin reached 66% in 2021.
Hyaluronic acid ushers in the era of branding and serialization, and the “Hi body” series continues to expand. 1) Enrich the product line and expand the market at the same time to accelerate the harvest of “unique” dividends. The core product “Hi body” is the only class III drug and instrument hyaluronic acid with neck approved by nmpa in China, which has established a strong brand reputation. Following the “Hi body”, the company’s product line has been enriched. In terms of channels, by the end of 2021, the company had 263 sales and marketing personnel, and the channel strength was consolidated again. 2) “Shuiguang needle” is included in three categories of medical devices, “neck lines and dark circles under the eyes” and “Hi body” 2.5 + new huihuo bubble needle is the only compound hyaluronic acid injection among compliant products.
The beauty of light medicine is moving from the “filling era” to the “regeneration era”, and the advantages of white angel are prominent. At present, there are only three types of compliant regenerated collagen products, with a good competition pattern. Vs hyaluronic acid, girls’ needle and traditional children’s face needle, the advantages of moistening angel are mainly reflected in the safe composition, complete metabolism, immediate filling and regeneration effect. It has a high price increase rate for institutions, and is more cost-effective than competitive products. At the same time, we believe that regenerative medical beauty is currently in a period of accelerating penetration and blooming flowers in China, and has not yet entered the stage of vicious competition. The white angel is expected to seize a greater share. It is expected to create 1.462 billion yuan of revenue for the company in 2025, with a CAGR of 110% in four years. Rich product matrix, relay of heavy products such as botulinum toxin, and long-term high growth can be expected. The company has a rich product line under development. At present, there are 7 class III medical device certificates in hand. Botulinum toxin A for injection has entered the phase III clinical trial stage. Two products are in the clinical trial stage and four products are in the preclinical research stage. It is expected to form a fist product matrix with other products of the company in the future. In addition, the R & D foundation of the company is deepened year by year. From 2018 to 2021, The long-term R & D expenses can reach 4.4 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan respectively, with a compound growth rate of 4.4 billion yuan / year.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the company’s performance is mainly driven by the following factors: 1) the further penetration of the specialized single product “Hi body” neck tattoo needle + panda needle, 2) under the background of strict supervision, the market of “Hi body” 2.5 and huihuo bubble needle is expected to expand, 3) the rapid replacement of traditional hyaluronic acid and non-conforming products by the innovative recycled product Rubai angel, and 4) in addition, The company has also accelerated the construction of channels to reap the corresponding “track” dividends. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 1.500/2.178/2.917 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 56.6% / 45.2% / 33.9%, and the corresponding PE is 65 / 45 / 33x. The company is a relatively pure medical and American material enterprise, which has certain scarcity and maintains the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: the progress of new product promotion and product approval is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the epidemic situation is repeated
